What do you think will actually happen to manufacturing over the next few years?

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I don’t have any actual thoughts but I can throw out endless buzzwords like internet of things and automation

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Continued growth driven by low interest rate and low energy cost environment. If the “green new deal” gets pushed through then US manufacturing drops to near zero and moves to latam/apac

Double whammy: tight labor market, trade uncertainty has either resulted in companies stockpiling inventory or will have higher production costs while slowed global demand and volatility will leave credit markets tight and lowered spend

Fed wouldn't be able to step in, nearly as effectively as they did in 2008-09, because fed can't really loosen enough by itself - ecb is already running negative real rates, no more bullets left, BOJ is in not much better shape and China will be focusing on domestic economic policy (rural towns waiting in line to move to cities, no jobs, not much money to go around in the event trade hurts them, etc), Canada and Australia are facing high RE prices and anyways don't have a balance sheet meaningfully large enough to help much

This isn't my analogy, but I'll regurgitate - TNT is very stable when left alone, but it's when someone tips it over that the real trouble starts - where do you think is the unsuspecting match which will light everything up this time?

Not my

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