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Multi-family might fair reasonably well depending on upcoming fiscal policy, but I'm confident class A will stay strong
The easy answer is data centers.
Multifamily is also well positioned. Most markets don’t have an over supply and recessions typically push would be home buyers towards rentals.
Retail and hospitality will be a shit show.
Office will take a little longer to feel the pain. The success of wfh will change the way companies use office space. This will most likely push office users to reduce their space requirements and further strain office vacancy.
This is the correct answer. Source: real estate IB
I think office, retail are going to take a hit as workers continue to WFH and consumption drops with shoppers staying home
Commercial real estate is going to be in trouble. Lots of smaller brick and mortar businesses will be going under
Yup this is a big point, very much agree
Office probably the best positioned.
Worst positioned - probably hospitality assets and co-living. Already seeing deep impact there.
I like utilities
I like utilities and healthcare. I’m bearish on office, retail, and multi-family residential.
Yes, but they may no longer be able to afford their current rent payments. There will be an increase in vacancies, delayed payments, and eviction. Younger adults who are laid off may choose to return home to live with parents.
Specialized REITs can do really well - data center, industrial, cell towers
Affordable Housing is the safest
Retail and hospitality already seeing impairments as income gets hit hard. Although some may argue it’s a good time to pursue these sectors for investments, more prudent investors maintains wait-and-see attitude as they’re afraid capital values may fall further. Funds that had disposition plans in 2020 may see a hit in net returns as cash becomes a shortage and investors hold on to their pockets. On the other hand Logistics and long term Multifamily still resilient driven by demand for e-commerce and the stable nature. However Multifamily also depends on location- core or tier 1 cities should be generally sustainable if leases are secured over a long term. Logistics can still be impacted on a company cash flow level due to higher rental concessions (if in a tenant driven market). Some governments are starting to provide rental reliefs, but the ultimate saving grace still lies in the tenant quality as well as how diversified business are.
Industrial should be okay - leasing has been great recently with the stay at home policy. Retail will be tough, and hotels could be in a brutal spot
Top performers: data centers, multifamily, self storage, cold storage (industrial)
Under performers: malls, healthcare (senior housing, not MOB), office, lodging