What should the reaction be if the vaccines end up only being reasonably effective. Say we end up with a going forward rate of 100,000 dead per year. Or 50,000. Is there a point at which you say you were willing to take the risk and move back to a normal life (gatherings, restaurants, travel, etc.)? Recognizing they lockdowns can temporarily reduce counts, but not eliminate the disease.

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We can’t stay shut down forever. If for some reason the vaccines aren’t completely effective we still need to open. If u are high risk or scared YOU can stay home. To enforce other healthy members of society to stay home to protect the few who cannot is not the way.

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Agree with all of Bloomberg1’s posts. S(He’s) correct

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My view (UK) is on a cost-benefit analysis we are already at the "lift the restrictions" stage. Probably keep additional public hygiene advice, but the business closures are costing more than the benefit even without the vaccinations.
The biggest benefit of the vaccination programme to my mind is boosting public confidence. The exact level of protection isn't as important as providing a mental reassurance to people that it is okay to cautiously return to work and socialising

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Agree 100%!

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The vaccines are 95% effective. Why are we even discussing this hypothetical?

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Exactly. We are SO close and now just need to persevere with sheltering in place until everyone has actually received the vaccine in a few months. The ONE way to catastrophically screw up now would be to throw in the towel and go back to normal activities unvaccinated.

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It's not about individuals willing vs. not willing to take risks. It's about local governments deciding whether or not people should be granted right to earn and allowed to re-open businesses.

Lockdowns can temporary reduce counts, yes, but also throw people into a permanent cycle of un-/under-employment, debt, poverty, depression, etc.

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Then add ICU capacity and train people to work in them. We have done that during wars, I don’t understand why we have not done that during the pandemic.

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Everyone who says people not at high risk for death shouldn’t worry about the virus is not taking into account hospital capacity. When the hospitals are full of Covid patients, they can’t accommodate routine surgeries, cancer treatment, etc. Even if you build more space, there is only so much medical staff. If you get into a car accident or get cancer when the hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid, there may be no staff left to take care of you.

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I think this is one of the points that has not received enough attention. We should have spent significant portions of the federal aid on building temporary health facilities and training people to provide the necessary treatment. That would have permitted less businesses to be locked down.

We are already at normal. I’m not aware of people changing gathering or travel plans.

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"NORMAL" LMAO
Where I live everything is closed. I mean, everything, with the exception of pharmacies and grocery stores.
Even friggin' zoos.
So there is literally nothing else to do but to gather at other people's kitchens, "USSR in the 70's"-style.

likeuplifting

SA1 is actually responding to my question. It’s important to think about these things. Yes, the vaccine seems promising, but that does not mean it will absolutely eradicate the virus long term. Locking down for two weeks or two months, etc. does not mean it goes away. Korea is beginning to see flare ups and they were one of the most locked down locations. If the virus is in nature and we don’t develop immunity, either naturally or through vaccination, we need to think about the “what if”.

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Love your optimism, PwC3!

Deaths wouldn’t be the only factor we would need to consider. If millions of people were still contracting the virus and the long-term side effects were observed to be serious, we would need to account for this.

My concern is that Covid-19 will evolve into an annual strain kind of thing. As we speak, they’re doing research into a new strain of coronavirus in the UK. If it becomes an annual thing like flu season, there is no way the government will be able to justify keeping these restrictions in place.

You are just inventing things to get pre-emptively mad about now

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