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Coach
Transfer if you like your group. It's tough building a new group from the ground up. Along with new clients.
I have been told by new firm they would put me up for partner next year but not sure I believe anything like that
This. Get it in writing. Had a somewhat similar choice of making partner now or following to a new firm, and new firm put partner look in the offer letter
Subject Expert
My entire group lateraled several years ago. Our seniors all took different approaches. One was made partner in the move, one took a huge bonus and ultimately went in-house as planned, and another took a guarantee of being put up two years after we arrived. Worked out for everyone involved. I’d probably go if you could get the firm to put the one year offer in writing.
A few might stay if I stay but bulk of work would go with partners that are leaving
If you leave, what are the chances of making partner? I knew an 8th year who left with their group (was going to make partner that year), and had to wait 3 years at the new firm. This was for nonequity partner.
Community Builder
Hard to give advice without knowing the firms and groups (if you would like to disclose and get my objective advice, feel free to shoot me a DM) , but my gut is do not stay at a firm where a Partner is making less than associate market comp on the Cravath/Milbank scale. Again - I don’t know the particulars - but I’m hard pressed to think any good clients will be left for you to service once the group leaves. You’ll be a service partner for bottom of the barrel clients that don’t move because they don’t like the rate increase at the prestigious firm.
Even if you decide to leave in 6 months because you don’t like the new digs, you won’t be seen as jumpy. Lateral moves with a group are not “lateral moves” (and should definitely be indicated as such on your resume).
Is the practice group leaving across offices? Stay and make partner then see if the opportunity stands to join your group at the new firm as partner within a few years
Or else see if you can negotiate a way to make partner at the new firm within a few years
Everything is negotiable
Subject Expert
Are you confident in your ability to develop a book of business on your own? When people make partner at an established group, you’re managing current clients while you have time to find your own.
Moving as a partner with no book is exponentially harder unless you want to go to a smaller firm.
Do you clients that will stay?
Subject Expert
Guaranteed partnership definitely sounds tempting but it sounds like you only have a small book. If most of your group is leaving how confident are you that you’ll be able to develop your own book at current firm on your own? How much support do you think current firm will give? Is it going to be just “rah rah” support and you don’t get fired or are they going to aggressively cross sell you to their clients etc? I’d be wary of languishing as a non equity partner for a long time (or “equity” but never a true power player at the firm).
Same questions for new firm too. Is the group that you’d be with going to be really supportive of you building your own book, handing you deals and clients etc? Agreed with specifically negotiate if/when you’ll be up for partner in writing and get a good understanding of like is this just they’ll “put you up” but who knows what will happen or is it a realistic proposition within 1-2 years.
I’m leaning toward new firm for you, though. If you’re going to make as much as a senior associate at new firm as you are as a partner as current firm, well, the title is nice but money is king, don’t let them snooker you. The real money is down the line and will definitely be better at the bigger firm it sounds like, especially if you can make partner there.
I would stay and make partner
Is yours a practice that will leave when you leave or are they likely to need to replace in order to keep offering those services to clients (e.g. tax, immigration, trusts and estates)? There's (probably) something to be said for loyalty and institutional knowledge, as in if the firm needs to hire in laterals, there's a chance you'd be well positioned as a junior partner who knows how things are done at your firm and acting as a bridge between the old group and new group.
I'd check to make sure your firm isn't going to ding you for not having a book of business right away if the outgoing partners are taking everyone with them. For the clients that stay, I think the firm could be grateful to leave them in your hands as a show of stability. It looks bad when a group leaves and goes elsewhere, try to use this to your advantage.