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Subject Expert
This is a complex subject. But to (over)simplify they update their near, medium and long term macro economic forecasts and run scenarios to try to predict reactions to changes to the economy as they pull or add liquidity.
Obviously there are huge assumptions and many variables that are second and third order effects. .
Credit card usage on mobile apps increases the velocity of money, while hoarding due to fear or rational expectations reduces velocity of money but at different rates as an easy example.
Then they coordinate messaging from various Fed Governors and Board members to test the reaction to potential changes in totals, durations and methods. Known Doves will hypothesize publicly one thing while a Hawk might say something a week later different to guage sentiment changes. Drastic changes are often signaled by having a known Hawk proclaim a typically Dovish signal for example.