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Executive leadership who will fire anyone below them to keep their jobs secure?
I am guessing highly-paid UX directors will be axed. Because people will finally figure out that they’re glorified web designers making $250K.
👀
Paid Media/Retention (Paid search, Audio, Paid social, Email, etc.) will fare best - this is because the results of the efforts of this team is directly tied to revenue for companies. Companies cannot go without revenue (obviously) so they will lean on these teams heavily - granted they will be tasked with being super efficient but most of the Performance teams are already accustom to this.
Creative will be pinched to be cheaper labor which might spark layoffs, but will be really important as good creative will be needed to convince customers to pick the brand.
Account and Business Development will be hit the worst. The golden age for account teams (where agencies were able to charge high $ for account directors, managers, etc.) is already pretty much over but will be even worse as brands will cut the part of the team that from their POV brings them the least amount of money when they need it most - that is almost certainly account teams. Truth is they can just have media folks talk directly to the client, train strategists to do it, and/or have 1 dedicated account person. Business development simply because most brands are going to try and nickel and dime like crazy and also likely not going to have as many costly RFP processes where it will be really tough for them to drum up business.
IF there is an incoming recession
I feel like mid to entry level production and account will probably be hit first. Without creative there is no product and strategy is typically lean anyway so not much pruning possible. (Not saying this definitively just speculating)