Why are highly analytical professionals (like us) panicking about COVID-19? Am I missing something in the numbers (CFR, infectivity, etc.)?

likehelpful
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20x to 200x more lethal than the flu, no vaccine or treatment, highly infectious and can be spread without symptoms...

likehelpfulfunny

Few reasons:

1. The mortality rate of 3% is low, but considering the transmissibility of the virus, could still pack a punch
2. People are dumb and do dumb things when scared
3. The government is losing control of the spread (evidence being it popping up in multiple states)
4. Our lives are spent on airplanes, which is an ideal vector
5. Read item 2 a few more times

That being said, I bought a case of beer, couple bottles of wine, and a few weeks worth of additional food. Prep complete.

likesmart

OP - totally agree on the mortality rate.

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Because even humans who like to think of themselves as analytical and logical are still pretty heavily ruled by our emotions.

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Truuuuu

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Why are china, Italy, korea, japan having lockdown if its "just another flu"? Do you know something they don't? And people keep quoting the 3% mortality rate. Not only is it many times higher than the flu (which kills tens of thousands), no one is factoring the amount of infected people who will be in critical conditions and will overload our healthcare system. And yes the numbers in the US is relatively low, but when it started in china it also started with <10 cases and exploded to what it is today. People who take this lightly: when this becomes a pandemic, I expect you all to apologize for recklessly downplaying the gravity of this situation.

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Op,its funny you raised doubts about the # of people who had been infected, but you don't have the same concern for the # of people who died from the infection. Are they testing for the virus on all deaths now? If unreported infections is your argument, how about unreported deaths from the virus?

likesmart

pre·cau·tion
noun
a measure taken in advance to prevent something dangerous, unpleasant, or inconvenient from happening.

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I can chose to consume alcohol. I can’t chose whether my zipcode is the next one to make the news.

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US people won’t heed quarantines like the South Koreans. Many Asymptomatic Americans won’t self quarantine and the government won’t force them. These people will then infect vulnerable populations. US hospitals aren’t remotely prepared.

likesmart

Consultants are healthy but the stress from this job makes them so unhealthy. Can you relate Manager

I’m not worried about me, personally, but I am worried about the people in my life, and those I come into contact with, who are at much higher risk (immune-compromised, history of respiratory issues, etc.). Overall mortality rate is likely way lower than reported, but it still puts individuals at risk, and this is an incredibly transmittable disease that is very hard to contain. Once we reach a critical mass in a few densely populated areas (NYC just confirmed its first case) this thing will spread rapidly — from there it’s just a numbers game.

likesmart

Yeah that’s what I’m most worried about personally — I don’t want to inadvertently spread this to anyone at risk. I also live near a hospital, work with patients, and live with people who work with patients, so my risk of exposure is definitely higher than average. I’m probably going to self-isolate / work from home if this thing starts getting real as a precaution.

i think what’s putting me on edge is that i AM an analytical person who takes comfort in facts and data and transparency, and all the politics and face-saving and misreporting of data tied to this (whether intentional or not) have resulted in a situation where getting a clear picture of what the realities are, is near impossible

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For real, me too. Need therapy. ❤️

WA patient who died yesterday had same genomic infection as US Patient Zero (also infected in WA). That patient was treated six weeks ago. High likelihood there are 100s if not 1000s passing this off as common cold. No surge in critical cases, pneumonia, etc.

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Presumably you/we are not used to doing the math on infectious disease curves. If you knew anyone in epidemiology or who researches the patterns of outbreaks, you would be paying closer attention

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Well, but the 80k infected was 1.4k like 3 weeks ago... the prob is no one knows how many will get infected before we are done w this. Since it’s so infectious w long incubation period, we are all pretty sure it’s going to be more people before it’s done. The uncertainty is the killer and the fact we all know it’s not over yet

Agree. In my head I know this will be fine... but I still just told me SO to stock up a bit while I travel and I have a little fear because there are unknown factors

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If you want to see an infectivity simulation, play the mobile game Plague Inc and pick flu-like symptoms and transmission vectors. It has been around for a while, but China recently banned the game for obvious reasons.

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Because tech people are freaking out about it, and the ambiguity around severity for <50 year old people makes people think it is as bad as the severity for <=50 year olds

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