Will we see hyperinflation? People saying we should print money because of the demand shock are missing that real global output is shrinking dramatically. More money chasing less real output historically causes inflation...

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Where have you been all this QE years? Inflation, for now, has been on financial assets not on consumer goods (true infl). We will see inflation if demand > supply, which today is not the case (production is re-starting quicker than demand -> deflation). + I bet that a lot of people will try to increase savings (for those you can) in case of new pandemic.

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Guess it depends where the money goes and what demand looks like. Real global output is going down but so is real global demand (at least for now).

Also remember that only some portion of the new money is going to ordinary spenders, many of whom are losing jobs etc (ie the money might slow down demand reductions but probably isn’t and won’t spur demand increases at least for now).

If the money pours into assets we might see financial asset inflation (kind of like we already have for the past 10 years).

The third likely place USD specifically could go is other countries. The global demand for dollars is extremely large.

My money leans towards #3, and seeing something like Japan where even massive central bank balance sheet increases has not spurred hyperinflation, and has barely staved off deflation.

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Inflation is the change in price of a set of consumer goods.

If the money doesn't make its way down the economic food chain, you won't see significant change in headline inflation.

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