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Seems like a classic market sizing question in consulting. Read up on that.
Think it starts with estimating the population of Delhi say 2 crore. Further divide it into different age groups and utilisation. So maybe kids upto 5 yr olds don't use stationery, 5-10 use it regularly, 10-15 use it 7/10 times. Estimate this size. And essentially go on like this to determine the population that uses pencil. Estimate the price of a pencil and number of pencils sold in say a day to get monthly/yearly sales.