11/3 Thread (General) :
Related Posts
Clues that you didn’t get the job?
Additional Posts in Option Traders & Investing
Mentor
IDN up 15% today, was a great call out
Anybody getting into DraftKing?
Thoughts on SQ considering the CEO cashed in?
What the he🏒🏒 just happened? Everything is red!
Coach
Enthusiast
12/2 Thread (BC):
Who’s buying BB calls?
EPOR a solid first option trading choice?
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Enthusiast
Not saying it is going to happen, but the 2000 contested election led to a 10% decline in S&P during November. VIX was around $25 on election day, and spiked at $30 a few days later, a 20% jump. 4 days after that, it was below its election day and closed at $24, despite the uncertainty.
So, election uncertainty will certainly cause a spike in VIX, but it can pull back rapidly. So, for those playing shorter expiration UVXY plays, don't be afraid to secure some profits along the way.
I saw an interesting comment that gave me a different perspective - even if the presidential election is contested, congress will likely be decided and that removes an element of uncertainty and limits the possible outcomes to 2 at that point.
I like BC's longer dated UVXY play for a broader market selloff and/or black swan event.
I am more concerned with the Senate being in doubt for a while than the presidency.
Enthusiast
Looks like the inverse H&S formation on S&P will play out today. So much for election day volatility. The market is pricing in a clear victory. By the looks of cannabis and clean energy running wild, the market has assumed a Biden win. Although tech is up today too, so maybe the market is just pulling for a clear win.
Subject Expert
Looks like non tech is bouncing hard while tech is hardly moving up. Volume is still low in most sectors other than Energy, Travel, retail. Hard to say whether this is dead cat or more of a sector adjustment and correction with some early stage value buyers.
Enthusiast
SPY - not only did inverse H&S play out, SPY also reentered the falling channel from mid October and ran up to retest the top bound of the channel, which coincides with a 50% retrace of the move down from 10/12. Is this where we fail? We filled the gap from last week almost perfectly, now there is a gap lower. Let's see if we trade lower from here or break through the channel.
Enthusiast
SPY 338.25 - this is the resistance level to watch.
Coach
Market seems to be running on the ether of low volume, people pricing in less post-election uncertainty (clear win) and I think some retail investors betting on another 2016 upset. People are probably wrongly discounting the shenanigans Trump will pull, but he’ll likely lose. Either way, seems like smart money will pull the rug tomorrow. Volatility on results, start worrying that stimulus isn’t coming until 2021 and higher taxes.
Mentor
I think it’s almost a given meaningful stimulus isn’t come in till 2021 even if Trump wins eventually
Enthusiast
VIX backtested the trend line that it broke out of last Wednesday. If the trend line holds, could provide a next leg up in the VIX.
Subject Expert
Agreed.
All I’m asking for is a 7-8% decline for some shorts to rake and give me a chance to average down on some long term hold.
Is that really too much to ask?
almost decided to buy puts and play wayfair earnings but thank god i didn’t..
Subject Expert
Should have held onto those AES calls.
Subject Expert
Utilities have been crazy. Not a good sign.
Subject Expert
Such a predictable drop off the 338. Cashing out 2 flyer puts I set now.
Mentor
Yeah I couldn’t believe 330p for tomorrow we’re still at 210
we just need a power hour dump
Subject Expert
Yup. Just got my puts back on
Coach
Man, running it back up to $338 until 3:55, then straight down to $336 on almost 6M volume. $335 on another 4.1M AH!
Subject Expert
Algos
Subject Expert
Being up 20% on these NOK leaps already makes me wish I had gone in heavier.
Subject Expert
Nothing says you can’t add to a position if you’re thesis turns out to be right.
Coach
Shoulda kept those BABA puts!
Subject Expert
I took that as another chance to enter into BABA for a short term bounce.
Enthusiast
Closed my FSLY put this morning for minimal gain after being up 50% last week - this thing went off after I sold. May consider buying back in.
Enthusiast
Its a good thing Election day is Tuesday and not Wednesday or Monday. Lottos on SPY puts would have made an absolute killing in the last 5 minutes. SPY dropped $2.
Made a quick 20% on some weekly puts @330 during this run up. Won’t complain about stupidity haha