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Huge attrition and difficulty to attract talent once the market bounces back up
Why would there be large attrition after the market recovers?
Where will everyone go? If other firms, why? And why would we struggle to recruit? The situation here isn't unique to AS and has been handled with relative transparency compared with our competitors. If outside consulting, the market doesn't seem too bad now. What's keeping voluntary attrition so low at the moment?
They for sure should have been better managed but it seemed like they were delaying or minimizing cuts because of the culture which might be a fault. Didn't Rory say they never had mass layoffs in the firm's history? Not saying execution wasn't bad...
All strat firms ridiculously overhired since COVID and are cutting staff. Outside consulting and big tech, things look decent. Most of my friends who got laid off in the March round have found jobs already. If the deal market picks back up I'd rather be somewhere where my comp has upside and I know I'm valued since I already managed to survive the worst of times but maybe that's just bc I've already seen the grass isn't any greener on the other side. Read the generic consulting bowl and you'll see what I mean.
People will leave - especially the good people.
Promotions are not being granted currently.
I think going to a TMT practice of MBB/T2 is way better (and better compensated, given our large share of bonus, which sucks anyway)
Promotions are still being granted as normal, which is not the case at other firms.
Agree with the above, huge attrition once the market bounces back. Two huge lay offs in three months have really ruined the moral, culture and confidence in the company. While every consulting firm is conducting lay offs, it is not to the scale that we are. The firm is knew it was too dependent on PE deal flow and TMT but acted way too late to prepare for the drop in demand. I frankly would not be surprised if there was a third round of lay offs.
My predictions: 2023 PE demand will stay low and, if it keeps further decreasing, another round of layoffs might be on the table. In 2024 PE demand will pick up but nowhere near 2021-22 levels.
As the job market improves, a lot of the “good people” will leave (we had basically 0 voluntary churn in the past 3 quarters).
Directors that do not sell that much might leave for shops with higher base / lower commissions (which is probably what leadership hopes anyway).
More broadly, the industry is going through a consolidation phase and I wonder whether we will get acquired by a larger firm down the road.
My 2 cents:
- Alix and A&M: they don’t have a big CDD presence but they do work with PE, mainly with their PortCos. It might be a good 1-stop-shop kind of value prop
- LEK does a bunch of CDDs but probably not as strong in Digital Infra as we are, so it might be a good fit
Again, this is just me speculating based on industry trends. I wish I knew what the heck is going on LOL