10/13 Thread (General):

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That ramp up and sell off for AAPL was super scripted. I managed to make a little on the way up and down despite having crappy entries for both sides. I’m sure some folks made a killing.

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Yeah lots of room to move down, but it’s hard to really pick the right entry. Majority of the action isn’t even forming a pattern, just shooting up. I’ve debated just setting long standing put on a few things that should go down at some point but with such high IV, you lose some of Vega benefits when it flips.

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The first bit was actually last week and is down 20%.

But... it’s time to get bigger. The HV30 is above the IV. Market feels complacent.

Took a look at SPY for the first time in a few days... holy gap there's a lot of open space below. We are melting up again like the days leading up to September 2nd. Today was a holiday, volume was light, euphoria is back in action. I'm a little sus on this market right now.

Equity P/C ratio is hovering around 0.4. People are still bullish in their trades despite bearish sentiment being stronger in surveys and polls.

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Don't remember when exactly, I think early last week, there was a short if you blinked you missed it soundbite from a CNBC anchor that he'd heard from trading desks that the "whale" call buyer was back in the market.

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TTD... 50% increase in valuation in 1 month...

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Apple event - seemed like nothing really surprising? Im not sure what all the hype is for anymore. I continue to hold that Apple hasn't surprised me in a long time with anything innovative. Bigger screen, better battery, better camera seems to be the focus across all phonemakers, which is getting worn on consumers who don't want to drop a paycheck on a new phone.

I think the hardware is out ahead of the software and network. 5G seems to be catching up to the phones and my guess is software will be coming soon that exploits the other two elements.

I agree that a megabuck for a marginally better phone camera doesn’t make sense. And I think Apple should be doing more to drive revenue from services. But my sense tells me the next three years could see how we use iPhones change significantly.

Of course I think a lot of that is already priced in and I’m likely to sell a third of my position here.

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Additional Posts in Option Traders & Investing

Weekend thought as many of us watch our portfolios bleed away value as the market hit all time highs: stick with it. This is a very difficult time in the market so try to figure out what’s not working and fix it. Stick with your process while trying to improve it. That should you you in the best place to manage risk now and be positioned to capture new opportunities in the coming weeks and months. Discipline, execution, and patience are key sources of alpha. Best of luck.

likeuplifting

Thoughts on puts on X expiring next week? Or in 2 weeks or something? Getting a little ahead of itself here

It’s been an interesting 24 hours. So, you know I got out of the VIX Puts at 26 with a small loss. I bought a few DIA July 15 calls at the low at a 309 strike .13 so I did better than I would. Trading the technicals now with DIA and C Puts.

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What are some of your favorite strategies to use in VIX since it constantly decays? Bear call spread? Or is there something more profitable?

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Happy New Year Everyone! Learning about options from this group was one of the only positives of 2020... Looking forward to 2021

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What would not having a second stimulus mean for stocks 6-12 months from now? I’m assuming it hurts stocks but increases the value of USD?

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DOGECOIN to the 🚀🚀🚀🚀

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New investor here, should I sell my one singular Tesla stock(114% return) and look at some smaller stocks?

smart

Went all cash yesterday before closing. Looks like I timed it right. We shall see!

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Looking for a cannabis play that isn’t SNDL (sorry financials look like shit). Anyone have a view on GRAMF (JayZs company which just SPACed) ?

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Hi, amateur question. Is there any difference tax wise on letting an option expire vs sell for nothing? I assume both are tax losses that you can compensate with gains in other options right? TIA

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Too late to get into BA? Was considering at 150 but didn’t and kicking myself for it

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Do we see opportunity in JNUG at these levels? Possibly 2 week call to get the rate cut effects?

AT&T: HBO-MAX is probably top 3 stream platforms along with netflix and disney plus. Despite this AT&T trades at a super low multiple. Is this the next glow-up a la Disney this past month? I think so. They've already got an extensive library and have consistently over 20 years delivered the best shows on TV, period. I understand that the core AT&T business may seem like a "liability" to the valuation but I still think that their valuation doesn't make sense. What am I missing?

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I’ve got cash that I want to conserve (for bschool) and my time horizon is 1 year. It is currently all sitting in a HYSA. Should I bother moving it to a higher return investment and if so what would that be? Thank you!

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With another Boeing 737 crashing, would it be wise to invest in Boeing Puts?

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Mgni I was jealous since I sold out at 32 after 100p returns. Now I’m happy I didn’t lose the extra, but the rest of my portfolio.. oh boy

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How do you track the price of an option? (e.g., how much cheaper is my option getting per day). Looking for a shortcut formula that accounts for the greeks

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Here’s a point of reference on meme stocks for people who thinks it’s too late to get in or who think it’s close to peaking. Tesla: 948M outstanding shares; market cap: $837B. GameStop: 69.75M; market cap: $5.36B.

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Anyone: Thoughts on Cisco Puts?

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