Adverse selection is a huge issue in trading. You never have perfect information and your decision won’t be perfect for the outcome. This usually means you’re too small in winners and too large in losers.

As markets crash we’re seeing something similar. People are ignoring bad outcomes when they should be working that much harder to protect previous gains and find new ideas. Lower traffic in this thread is a symptom of this phenomenon. Don’t quit just as the value of incremental effort ramps.

likeuplifting
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There's a quote by Warren Buffett

"When the tide rolls out, you get to see who was swimming naked"

I think a lot of people are getting punished for riding upward waves in things that didn't have a valuation basis to support it.

Eventually you get punished when you do that

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Yeah, it's not like the tensions with Russia are going to go away just because the Ukraine situation is resolved. The Genie's out of the bottle and now we have an oil storage.

There are also negative long term trends that you can trade.

Interest rates are going to rise. TLT is going to fall more.

China is too risky for Americans to invest in right now. BABA is going to fall more.

Stocks with no profit or depending on Covid are going to continue to fall. Rivian, Roblox, ZM.

Some bear trades are getting old. I've ridden PTON from 105 to roughly 21. I'm looking at when to exit this great trade. ZM has been great from 275, but I'm not sure how much longer to ride this one.

Energy and commodities are neutral to bullish. A very easy trade with a bullish calendar for example.

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Going back to oil, it looks like we’ll be getting a chance for entry this week.

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I think a lot of people got used to the bullishness of the market and have to much FOMO. They are scared to cut their losses. They could protect their gains by cutting losses and buying back lower.

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That is true. You can’t time the market. You can go with the trend. Times like this dollar cost averaging blue chips is a solid strategy.

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90% return!!! WTF didn't I buy more?!! WTF haven't I bought more?! ARRRRGGGHHHB!!!

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