AT&T: HBO-MAX is probably top 3 stream platforms along with netflix and disney plus. Despite this AT&T trades at a super low multiple. Is this the next glow-up a la Disney this past month? I think so. They've already got an extensive library and have consistently over 20 years delivered the best shows on TV, period. I understand that the core AT&T business may seem like a "liability" to the valuation but I still think that their valuation doesn't make sense. What am I missing?

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Three reasons I’m not all in on this yet: 1) The balance sheet. T is the most heavily indebted company in the US. They’ve done a lot of work cleaning up that debt schedule this year and selling off non-core businesses will raise cash to decrease leverage. So this one has a good trend behind it. 2) The launch of streaming has been a mess. Three platforms with non-sensical names? I have ATT Fiber and ATT TV. The fiber is great, but the TV product on AppleTV lacks functionality TiVo offered 15 years ago. And if I want to stream from my account over a browser on my PC it takes forever to find the right website (should really bookmark that one). I think they’re starting to figure this out, but they’ve wasted the perfect year for these products. 3) HBO doesn’t have the franchises that Disney has. Star Wars will make money. Pixar we will make money. Marvel will make money. Not just on the films, but on the toys, other merc, spin-offs, and parks. GoT, Sopranos, and The Wire don’t do that. I think T has potential and as a dividend stock it’s solid. It’s likely undervalued here and you’re paid well to wait. Not an awful play, but not sure streaming will cause it to re-rate.

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SM1, I REALLY like this trade. I know you were touting it a few weeks ago. I just started a Jan 22 35C and sold Mar 21 37C against it to lower the cost basis. Will probably roll that short leg a few times over the next few months to keep chipping away at the cost basis. The IV on this this is amazing. If it drops 10% in a week the IV spike should offset that to a large degree. The commission for me was high given the number of contracts in the trade, but that’s the price of doing business sometimes.

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This isn’t a risk-less play, but I’ve invested in T for the high dividend (vs letting cash sit idle). Most analysts say there’s still SOME growth, and it guarantees 5-7% return through dividends.

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I see greatest downside risk is headline due to dividend cut. I think it'd be short lived though. Looks like it's price is basically dead in the water, barely being up over COVID panic lows.

Also, wonder woman 1984 coming to HBO-MAX sets standard for future. I think Netflix is hitting its peak with Disney and HBOMax going for the jugular with box-office movie releases on their platforms.

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AND! look at the impact that the HBO-MAX on roku deal had to rokus stock price this week vs AT&T. I think analysts and people just don't understand or believe the how yet. It's interesting because it's a big dog old company reinventing itself. I believe they will be successful like disney. This will be the new trend over next 5 years as profitable businesses finally reinvent to ward off the new fast growth tech companies.

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Disney’s spike up is quite premature. Yes they are shifting to streaming and direct distribution of movies, but it’s premature to see how the latter plays out. Their theme parks are still in shambles. They don’t have the breath of content nor international subscription base as NFLX. It’ll probably run a bit longer to $190-$200 on the crazy momentum that stocks have this year, but I am not sold there is much growth beyond this price point in the long term. There’s only so much money people are willing to throw at discretionary subscriptions. And until the rest Disney’s core businesses are on a healthy trajectory, there’s too many risks for it to be at an all time high.

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I’ll certainly be liking for an exit on part of the position if it gets to $190.

Yeeep i gotta get back into T

Been following Dan for the last year, he’s been pretty solid on his picks

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thanks. It's interesting to see my thoughts getting repeated elsewhere. Int he end it's a long show for stocks so if enough of these gurus believe then so will the analysts (see Tesla). What are some notable picks he had? I'ma check out his Twitter.

Thanks for sharing.

So its hodl on T bag then?

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