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We are based on the definition of a recession even though the current administration is gaslighting us on what a recession is.
Pro
Recession is defined by NBER, but that’s semantics. We are absolutely in an economic downturn.
I think the writing on the wall is clear. It’s starting.
*started awhile ago
Pro
Of course we are. Between “big tech” and real estate, prices had to recede — because it was all purely speculative growth to begin with.
The way I frame the situation is that these are “losses on paper” for many people, but I think a few people who purchased homes at market peak will have a loan that doesn’t match the appraisal value of their home. (But since many people locked in absurdly low interest rates, it may not matter if they simply wait it out for 7-10 years.)
My 401k took a hit, because that’s what happens when stocks, bonds and other securities are built on speculation rather than good fundamentals.
Everyone wants to believe they’re getting wildly wealthy. We saw it in 2008 with the sub prime crisis, the Dot Com bubble of the late 90s and the stock market crash of the 80s. There will always be a new way we pretend our assets are worth more, and those inflated values simply don’t meet earnings and incomes.
So eventually, it all comes back to Earth.
Pro
BAH1 - yeah, Trucks prices are insane. They’ve ballooned to become status symbols/lifestyle vehicle.
Will hit after the election when republicans control the house and senate. In reality, it will hit when unemployment goes up. Mid-winter I suspect.
It’s a lose lose situation for all the politicians playing a zero sum game. The reality is that they are reality TV stars searching for money and power. Each side will continue to blame and blame harder on the other during the impending recession.
Beyond formal definitions, I am interested in the social ones. There is the dynamic that when the general population is “scared of a recession” they start tightening spend and actually create the recession. Then there is an aspect of once the general population are convinced we are “in the recession” and they realize they are OK, they start spending again and perhaps looking for “deals”. That spend starts to drive us out of the recession. All of this ignores macro economic drivers and more looks at business cycle, but this recession seems to be more of a normal business cycle as we inflate our way out of the COVID currency increase.
C1 - i am the only one in my family in white collar job so I agree rest of my family is feeling the pinch of inflation but honestly, most of the family members are staying put. So people who already own the houses are staying put, people who were looking for houses are not looking anymore, staying on rent. So its not that they are suddenly worried about housing.
But the impact is one people who we’re thinking of retiring or selling their houses to move on.
The stock market is reacting to fed tightening. That is all
Besides that, we have 3.5% unemployment, banks are blowing away their earnings expectations, and payrolls are rising. We have record wages and historically low bankruptcies. We even have record low household debt. The gdp is even rising
This headline from October really didn’t age well 😂
As per the traditional definition we are in a recession almost this entire year. But since unemployment is still low, personally I won’t think it is yet. But it’s starting!
There are economical indicators like GDP growth decline, unemployment rate, etc that are used by “experts” to say we are in recession. People will say we are in recession when the effects are seen, and when it is done, then these factors are used to justify that statement.
GDP declined for 2 quarters but i think it started going up and unemployment rates are still low.
People are complaining about inflation and government is trying to reduce it by increasing interest rates, which eventually leads to economic slowdown (aka recession)
So as someone said the writing is on the wall
RECESSION started in July
Oh, this question again… 🙄
We aren’t in a recession….. yet.
We've been in a recession since the GFC. It's about to get much worse. Some probability we're already in the midst of a depression.
Pro
We saw a 62.5% increase in GDP from the peak before GFC. Put the blunt down man.
It's not so much the we are in a recession right now, but rather that the feds are actively doing their best to cause a recession.