I really do think that AI could never replace translating business requirements into work than can be picked up by engineering AI tools. I just wanted to throw in another “anti-doom” sentiment. I’m sure there will always be options to apply the same thinking in the industries AI could impact. Do you agree or disagree?

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Its already being done.

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What is already being done? Replacing jobs?

I think it's theoretically possible, some day. Probably a long time from now, and assuming that people actually keep updating datasets with real world requirements and results. But AI is only as good as its data and humans (and their needs) are fundamentally hard to define.

The current round of Chat AI apps are honestly a marvel, and they do provide a lot of value. It is a massive tooling improvement, the equivalent of going from LANs to the Internet, or even the typewriter to email. But it's just a tool, that will require a lot of maintenance and tuning, and only does the work it's designed for.

For most jobs the biggest impact will be streamlining stuff you needed to do, but didn't have enough time for, anyway, like meeting agendas, executive overviews, documenting best practices, etc.

I do appreciate the irony of execs thinking they can eliminate positions because of time savings, ultimately finding out they can't - the work AI will make easier is just all the crap that wasn't getting done at all. And it's their own fault because of the "do more with less" attitude they have had for decades lol. Ah schadenfreude

I agree, probably a long time until we’re replaced

Largely agree. I would point you towards Dijkstra's piece "On the foolishness of Natural Language Programming." It argues that the whole purpose of programming languages is to formally express your desired processes. It has a thought experiment which I enjoy greatly, which suggests that if we started with natural language programming, we would have inevitably invented a way to formalise it so that we could express our intent precisely. If you buy that argument, I see a few possibilities for the future:
1. AI does poorly and companies adopting it too quickly come to regret it.
2. AI takes over the business AND and the software development side of things.
3. AI does poorly but companies still use it because the fallout from having bad software is cheaper than employing good developers.
4. AI sees improvements that lets it ask for questions, clarification, and even push back against the business side.

Just a gut feeling that the most to least likely realities is 3,1,2,4.

Appreciate your take! I definitely agree

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