Am I crazy for thinking the next ten years look bearish for mega-cap tech? Explanations inside.

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AAPL has continued to double and quadruple down on its investment in China as the wheels appear to be falling off their domestic economy and their international relations have never been worse. Also hasn't released an innovative product in a decade.

Meta has nothing but customer ill-will and its legacy platforms are stagnating at a time when the metaverse is still much too small to support the company, and due to all that ill will nobody is jumping to adopt their metaverse platforms. This company has also never innovated since it's inception and only thrived through aggressive M&A.

AMZN has new management and it's competition is looking like it will be ramped up over the next 5 years the way NFLX's did over the previous 5 years. Also union issues, supply chain squeeze, etc.

Regulatory pressure is also steadily mounting on the DOJ to take a stricter antitrust approach and break up these guys along with GOOG, MSFT, etc. The voters (but not the leaders... yet) in both parties are heavily in favor of breaking up big tech for completely different reasons.

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There’s been a huge tech bubble leading up. Now they’re paying the price

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Apple is releasing AR/VR, cars, and is ingrained in our lives. Many people have AirPods and AirTags now

Meta is a disaster agreed, but could bounce back if TT is banned.

AMZN/MSFT/GOOG: Cloud growth alone is huge. MSFT will make much more of gsming too. Amazon will find ways to automate its SC options and cut down on labor costs

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Not sure if you meant outwide of the laptop space or generally but I feel like M1/M2 are on the cutting edge of innovation. Many PC users have switched over the last few years.

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Trying to see past next 1-2 quarters is a fools errand.

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Trying to predict short term fluctuations is even more foolish

Imo I like all of them with the exception of META. Social media companies aren’t my investing preference.

Apple can grow strictly because they only gain customers and never lose them. >75% of young people have apple products and that number is only going to grow increasing their market share.

MSFT and GOOGL are killing it in the b2b space not to mention Google owns all of online advertising. Nobody else is even close. No business can market w/o Google.

Not to mention all of these companies future innovations. If oil companies can still thrive I don’t see why big tech can’t.

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Value trap, growth trap or margins and services grow. Not a crazy thesis

Maybe bearish for them - doesn't mean bearish for the newcomers which will eat their lunch... it happens to every company at some point. When is a different question.

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