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It’s a combination. Some is firm initiated, usually with “you’re not making partner” messages. Some is a hiring taper - meaning fewer departed people are replaced with laterals. Some is natural attrition by people going in house or seeking better WLB. Also at many firms there’s a noticeable drop off in the number of women at that level because of family considerations. Be careful about judging people who leave at that time. You don’t last that long without being skilled and productive.
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I get it. It’s an anxious time in a lawyer’s life. All you can do is control what you can control.
It’s the way the pyramid is designed to work.
It’s natural before then. At that level it’s more often firm initiated.
I ran some inquiries through ChatGPT some time back that don’t answer your question but were nonetheless interesting (albeit not scientific or necessarily reliable).
I asked it to look into first year/summer class hiring announcements at five BigLaw firms for years 2010 to 2015, then follow those announced as hired to determine whether they pop up at other firms and when, then looked at lateral associate hiring during the timeframe of 2015 to 2025, when they arrived, where they came from, and when and if they left. Then ultimately partner announcements if any for all identified associates and incoming laterals (including to the extent the original 2010-2015 associates or lateral who left made partner elsewhere).
For publicly available information it was able to create a spreadsheet of the data and determine that the likelihood of an associate making partner at the firm they start at over the 5 BigLaw firms was just less than 2%. The likelihood of those associates who left making partner at other BigLaw firms was ~1.4%. The number of lateral associates who came into the 5 BigLaw firms was ~6%.
A2, Soviet spyware.
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With the proliferation of NEP as a way to let people sit forever and potentially even pay them less than senior associates, I’ve not seen much pushing out at that level. Any level associate can get the axe if their hours are low, but there’s not really an incentive to push highly utilized associates out anymore even if they’ll never be EP for some reason. The departures I’ve seen at the senior associate level have been because people were starting to think about their post-associate careers and thought they’d do better elsewhere in the long run. Not enough internal political capital, faster track by leaving, not enough business development support, etc.