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Chief
Unless you’re being paid market biglaw base and bonus, you should lateral every 2 years for more money. Full stop. You gain nothing by staying somewhere longer than that unless it’s somewhere you really want to make partner, but even then you should probably lateral once or twice before then.
I agree. I made my partner/"friend" very wealthy by billing 2k+ hrs. After 5 years, I realized I was underpaid by at least 30%. I have made a lot of bad decisions, but none stay on my mind like letting someone take advantage of me. My niceness has cost me real $$ and time. I hate it. It is infuriating.
Don't be like me. Be polite and professional. But for the sake of your future self, make sure you defend YOUR value. Work at least as hard for yourself as you do for the firm/company.
You can interview and test the waters without being ready to burn down your current firm. You owe it to yourself to see what’s out there so you can make an informed decision about staying or going. Don’t waste your time with a recruiter though, they just want to collect their fee so they’ll say anything to try to convince you to leave.
Pro
Jeez, you've been jaded by Recruiters. I'm sorry about that. Meanwhile, I told three Associates yesterday they are better lateraling w/o a recruiter due to their situation and if a recruiter says otherwise they are lying
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To the original post, you don't know what's out there until you test the market yourself. I'm always hesitant in saying how much of a raise one will get, because I'm not the firm. I've gotten people 100k raises, 10k raises, and no raise. But yes, if you're asking here about the market, it's time for you to test it.
Bowl Leader
What are you paid now and will 20% help your life meaningfully (pay off loans, buy a home, help your family)? If you’re paid well below your value now that gap will likely widen further as you gain experience.
On the flip side if you’re financially comfortable and like your team then there’s no reason to leave for money.
I’ve helped associate candidates make 10-20% more immediately in salary but once they were on a better pay scale the difference grew considerably in years 5 and 6 plus greater bonus.