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Have you talked to the person you report to? No one has any idea what the policies are at an unnamed firm
OP - if you’ve asked your partner what milestones need to be achieved to make the case for promotion and they’ve given you wishy washy answers I would approach it as there is no plans to promote you in the foreseeable future.
You are cooked for sure - burnt one might say
Really that bad? I think I am in the average level of my team.
Manager to SM promotions at mid size firms depend on the competencies you have. Presumably you should be able to lead complex clients with minimal partner involvement (and also minimal things missed at the back end), should probably start looking at BD if you haven’t already, and be involved heavily in an internal initiative (training, recruiting, technical, etc.). Getting there may take longer than 3 years.
Yes. No.
I would say it somewhat depends on the firm. Some places have much slower timelines for promotion mostly due to lower turnover rate, which is good, but bad for those trying to move up. Do you get any performance feedback or reviews? That would help you get a better picture of what is going on.
Different firms (and even teams) have different “normal” timelines - in most places there will be a standard timeline, with some people being a bit quicker or slower depending on aptitude, team needs, and the market position.
When the market is slower, like it is now, it seems like promotions are generally a bit slower anyway.
I got promoted to manager really quick (senior for about 2 months), moved, but then had a fight for a year longer than I would have wanted to (just over 2.5 years all in) in order to get SM at my new firm because my total number of years experience was lower than my peers - we don’t know if these apply to you.
With that being said, it’s not like everyone will ever get promoted beyond manager - at each grade some people do just stop progressing. Everyone has a different ceiling for how many ranks they want to progress and/or have the aptitude to progress.