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Has anyone else begun to resent data science?
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There was a time that numerous independent analysts collected data to estimate who would win an election and handily predicted one candidate would win. Then the world was shocked when an orangutan was given nuclear launch codes!!
Spent a year developing ML predictive models for a new actuarial framework using a dummy data set provided by the client, based or variables chosen by the client.
Come go-live, as real data starts trickling in, this meticulously tuned, expensive model is largely throwing blanks.
Turns out the key data field they chose was non-mandatory and only had about 5% completeness.
Cue very expensive refactoring
They were implementing new data collection forms with new fields. The real data from that wouldn't be available until go-live, and they wanted preliminary predictions from from the first day which would then be refined with real data.
Deployed a forecasting model to manage operations in GMT rather than EST, leading to absolutely insane outputs.
Model had a 45% MAPE when it went to prod, but a 3% MAPE if it was offset by 8 hours to reflect the correct time zone.