With all these lay offs going on and hiring freeze… anyone think 2024 or even late 2023 is going to be a disaster when work inevitably picks up?

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yep, but frictions are always how market cycles work. Many people are underutilized right now which is inefficient, but then when people have been let go and things pick up, the remaining people will get crunched.

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Yeah. Happened during the start of covid when firms were turning down tons of work because there weren’t bodies to staff. Firms are short-sighted when it comes to layoffs and never seem to learn.

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Partner logic: God forbid my draw be flat YoY

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I don’t understand why firms are so shortsighted. Attorneys are notoriously bad at running a business but how stupid can you be? I get that they cut certain associates because they underperform and there are some ebbs and flows but overall why hire someone permanent if you don’t intend to keep them beyond a year? Vent over

signed an Associate given 4 months at BL firm before being told they’re being let go due to lack of work.

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I suspect a lot of firms think they can retain the "good" associates and hire new bodies when work picks up. And, I don't really have a counter argument here, wish I did. We look at 2021 and say "wow it got crazy we were understaffed". Partners might see it as a success "we were able to squeeze more profit from associates and hired whoever we needed".

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Can’t fuckin wait for that to happen because that means more $$$ right when I want to lateral

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Depends on the number of cuts versus the number of hires during COVID-19 recruitment boom. Feels like most firms that did layoffs engaged in mass hiring to avoid turning away work. Unlikely work will peak to that level again anytime soon. Much more likely work will resume to pre-COVID-19 levels, in which case, you need similar number of associates during pre-COVID-19 times.

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