Can someone tell me how log loss values can be used to compare two classification models? I understand the concept of log loss value but I don't quite get how two models can be compared using this metric. Is it as easy as saying, all things equal, one that has a lower log loss value is a better model?

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It is one metric to compare models on. a lower log loss value means that the prediction probabilities are closer to the actual 1/0 values (both directionally correct and with a higher degree of confidence). It is helpful to remember that for most model types, classification is a secondary step that uses an arbitrary cut off value. The actual model outputs will be a continuous number bounded 0-1.

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For example, logistic regression gives a continuous value like 0.85 as its output. To use it on a classification problem, you would then need to assign a cut off value (such as 0.5) and convert the model output to binary values based on which side of the cut off value they fall.

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It's in the name. Loss. You want less loss because you're losing something. In this case, loss = some distance between your predictions and reality. The less distance, the more your model lines up with reality, which is a good thing.

How you define how much representation of reality is lost by your model is up to you. Some common pieces are:
- a minus sign; this is the "purest" measure of distance, on a number line
- some transformation (e.g. squaring); this gives a nice "weighing" for which amounts of loss are negligible and which matter more
- a normalizing piece to shift everything to a nice 0-1 range; this lets us conceptualize the numbers more easily, maybe even use them as probabilities

If anyone's hiring, I'm available 😉

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