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No one has a crystal ball, but 5-7 years seems like a solid starting point for the purpose of this discussion. There’s a lot more macroeconomic factors at play, along with domestic politics. Ton of stuff is up in the air
I’m noticing tangential effects of AI that are indirectly impacting work. For example, boomer execs and CEOs are shrinking budgets because they’re like “can’t we just get AI to do it?” without fully understanding its capabilities / limitations. This puts pressure on middle managers to do things cheaper & faster, which trickles down to creatives. Also, bean-counting budget decision-makers seem less likely to approve bigger budgets for creative work because (1) they never saw the value in it to begin with and (2) AI can do it cheaper and (3) they are OK with subpar work, meaning they just need “good enough” which AI is capable of and therefore can’t justify the spend on humans.
There’s probably no one answer to this.
The industrial revolution took almost 100 years to play out.
The decline of manufacturing in America took between 30 and 40 years to get from its peak to where we are now.
I expect we’ll see this play out in a series of ups and downs. AI will proliferate beyond its limits then there’ll be a pullback as those limits become apparent.
I am praying on the downfall of AI at this point because it’s pretty clear we’re all fucking cooked if it keeps going at the rate it is. So really hoping the infrastructure cost won’t justify the output and shareholders and capitalist will do their thing and pull the plug on all of this. Also hoping ai will cannibalize google and metas ad business so that they’ll be forced to make it less capable but that’s just my theory.
Half of me is cringing for the downfall of all creative jobs, half of me feels like this is just another overhyped tech trend cycle and everyone is jumping onto it because it’s what makes shareholders happy.
I have not found it good enough to do much else beyond some concept images to sell in work, maybe some moving storyboards, MAYBE thought starters for headlines and ideas (but they’re so shit, I kind of don’t bother anymore).
I think the usual response to this is, this is just the beginning and it’ll get so much better.
I guess that’s the question. Will it?
Yes it’ll get incrementally better, but it seems to me like leaps and bounds improvements over a short time have already happened and the improvements now are much much smaller. It’s already scraped the whole of human art and knowledge.
I have my doubts it will get “good” at things like creating a truly compelling film, song, creative idea.
The reason it’s being pushed so hard now is largely shareholders. The pressure is to adapt or die, but few are stepping back and looking at how effective it actually is, and whether the replacement of workers will hurt in long run.
Where I see the most potential is in making creative people’s jobs more efficient. Maybe a VFX artist can finish a shot in half the time, making us able to reduce budgets on work so more work can be made. For me it does the annoying stuff well. Removing something in a photo in Photoshop or extending a background.
Best way to hedge your job against AI is to invest in AI stocks..
QQQ or S&P500 index. Tech dominates the market and the AI boom will be captured in the top of these indexes. It's really hard to pick individual stocks and win. But investing in general is the way for all of us to have backup assets/income for when advertising sinks into the career abyss. Start now!
It’s already happening, one example is Microsoft just laid off 6,000 roles of middle managers and engineers. Basically if you do any task that is routine, templated, and high-volume - your toast - soon.
Next week
In the digital age everything moves faster
It’s already happening in small ways. The industry is contracting, roles won’t be filled when people leave, etc. I imagine it won’t be one big moment but more like pulling on the thread of a sweater and it unraveling.
i showed up late what's up
You’re fired. Pack up your desk, but leave the WD40 for your replacement
By 2030
Right now it’s sh**. Unreliable information and 6 fingered imagery. 2-5 years before it’s viable commercially and trustworthy.
They got the super AI out there, but it’s not in the mix of commercial access.
Veo 3 is impressive for sure, and definitely the way a lot of commercial filmmaking is going, but it’s no where close to a magic machine that just spits out a good commercial. Getting good generations takes a ton of trial and error, vision, and finding clever workarounds for its limitations. It’s gonna be a while before a brand manager can just plug in some parameters and get a fully formed, coherent spot.
Plus, frankly, they could always do that if they really wanted to. Write their own scripts, hire their own production companies, etc. They come to us because we’re better at it. When the world changes we have to continue to be better at whatever comes next.
Google sees a world where they’re the only advertising agency in the game. But open source models are becoming available every day. I personally see a world where small agencies of highly creative people have their own AI and out-creative the suits and dinosaurs, just like always.
Coming for your jobs? It's already wiped out half the industry. What agency and country do you work in?
No it hasn’t. Client budgets have.
Which jobs in advertising do you think ai will collect first?
Programmatic media optimization and placements
I would say 3-5 years. AI cannot generate killer headlines...yet. But give it time. If they can condense the essence of hundreds of copywriter "voices", then it's a simply a matter of asking the LLM "Write me headlines for <product> as imagined by <name of famous creative>"
I cannot imagine being forced to use AI.
Spoke with someone in operations at my agency. They said they are going to begin the friends with robot approach as you say where roles are integrated with AI. Howerver eventually as it becomes more reliable humans will be phased out. I say 5 to 10 yrs but you will begin teaching AI how your job is done now.
Googles VEO3 is a game changer. This is going to happen fast.
https://gizmodo.com/googles-veo-3-is-already-deepfaking-all-of-youtubes-most-smooth-brained-content-2000606144