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Additional Posts in Technical Analysis & Charting
Bowl Leader
2-1 TA Midday update (SPY, CRM, AAPL)
Bowl Leader
I'll post some quick TA from today (11/7)
Bowl Leader
Bowl Leader
3/10 brief TA:
Bowl Leader
Bowl Leader
2-1 TA (Post Market):
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Staring with SPY (weekly chart). After hitting an ATH before falling more than 2% and then recovering.
The major trend from March is still in tact, but a rising triangle is forming and the 50 day MA is providing support. The trend from late October broke a few weeks ago as the S&P hit resistance at record levels. This is all normal.
What’s concerning is the RSI and stochastic divergences. This is a bearish signal, but not time to close up shop.
Bowl Leader
VP - did SPY retest the resistance with that pullback this afternoon?
Key takeaway is the market strength seems to be contracting. Several sectors are concerning and ~55 S&P stocks fell below their 50 day MA. VIX went up a bit today but SKEW (basically a measure of OTM options) was down. That probably indicates people where moving their low probably puts to ATM positions in anticipation of coming issues.
Traders beware.
IWM - small cap stock - broke the trend from Oct, but RSI and the stochastic are still rising. Looks like higher highs are still possible.
The Materials sector has lost momentum the last few weeks as the reopening trade as played out and broke through resistance before falling. Support not too far away and the technicals are solid. The miners are also moving up strongly as gold and copper prices rise.
Real Estate actually broke the major trend from March and hasn’t gotten back to pre-COVID levels. The sector also broke the RSI trend line and the stochastic is falling. The SPDR is sitting right at the 200 day MA and if it closes under this then the group could see some significant declines.
Healthcare offers good resistance with support off the 50 day MA and decent RSI. The rising stochastic is also hopeful.
Bowl Leader
Thanks for sharing VP - love the charts and the analysis. It helps to take a step back and look at the macro picture to complement the day to day trading. Helps put into focus even red days, the LT trend is still up (for most sectors).
It would be interesting, and I know there are folks out there that do this, to only trade the ETFs / Indices. Seems like it could be more consistent.
QQQ with a similar shape to the SPY, but the trend since Oct didn’t break until today - likely due to Tesla. Same falling trend for RSI and the stochastics.
Communications look similar to materials but weaker technicals. No need to panic here.
Energy broke the Oct trend and the RSI isn’t that strong to ensure continued strength. The OPEC and virus news will drive this sector in the coming days, but it’s not trading at am extreme as we head into this pivotal time period.
Financials still haven’t reclaimed Feb levels, but technicals look pretty good despite the trend break today.
Technology broke the Oct trend, but really hasn’t made much progress as a group in 5 months. Declining technicals and rising interest rates might signal turbulence ahead.
Industrials look similar to Materials and Communications, with overhead resistance but support nearby. Breaking though the 50 day MA is concerning.
Consumer staples maintained March trend - barely. RSI has stayed in a decent range for months but is right on a trend line.
Utilities are so similar to Real Estate, but not as dire. The RSI is in a decent spot and a support level has been forming the last three weeks. Wouldn’t buy here, but wouldn’t sell if you’re holding.
Consumer Discretionary is at a real pivot point with the long term March trend at risk and ATH at stake. Declining technicals and breakdowns at these levels are not encouraging signs.