Question about AI economic growth: if AI is likely to lead to a huge loss of jobs, where does the economic growth come from?

Like, I get we’ll be able to code faster and develop new software but who will have the money to buy anything? These rely on lots of people each having money to spend, not a small number of billionaires. One billionaire only takes one Uber at a time, for example. So it is not helpful to them if the billionaire is twice as rich but millions lose their disposable income.

likehelpful
Posting as :
works at
You are currently posting as works at
Highlighted IconHIGHLIGHTED

Was having this discussion with my husband just last night.
My prediction was mass layoffs will result in a large portion of the population on benefits. Those whose jobs are niche enough to keep working will pay more taxes. High unemployment and high taxes on those working to fund those on benefits. Corporations will cut costs but sharp reduction in discretionary income for people to buy things.
What is the end game here? Demand for processing power will increase costs of deploying AI - eventually making human labour just cheaper again.

Very curious to hear what other people think

likesmart

Nah, AC1, if anything, today's models are undertrained. There's still significant head room, as evidenced by the SOTA model developers putting out new models every couple months now just to keep up with all the Chinese start-ups pumping out new open weight models, each with measurable improvements in benchmarks across the board.

GPT-4o is already dwarfed by models a tenth its size and can barely hold its own against ones with 1/100th the number of parameters. Changes in training reward models since last summer have also started to significantly cut into hallucinations rates as well.

If you study economics, increased productivity has always been the driver of increasing real wages. It seems counter-intuitive, but without productivity growth you can’t have wage growth without commensurate inflation.

They worried about massive job losses when horseless carriages put the blacksmiths out of business. They worried about massive job losses when the computer put secretaries out of business. The economy always grows and expands and creates new jobs and opportunities when productivity increases.

likefunny

M3 nailed it. A "study of economics" does not teach us that workers capture the value of increased productivity. Worker compensation is a result of supply and demand. Surplus value is captured by owners.

I still think that AI will empower more than it replaces. In the near term, I think there'll be a lot of churn and people will "feel" like the job market is worse than the numbers indicate. But over time, we'll find the limits of the technology and figure out where skilled humans add the most value and the market will rebalance.

That or we see a complete labor revolution with either universal basic income or massive strikes 🤷‍♂️

like
Recent IconRecent

We revolt at dawn.

like

I rode into the sunset without yall

The flow: AI (takes white collar jobs) > Robotics expansion (takes blue collar jobs) > social programs kick in and UBI or revolution (pick one or both)

Keep in mind…Society starts unraveling at 12% unemployment; estimates for AI alone range 30-60% (great depression was 35%). For countries that don’t have social policies in place and collective mindset (ie US), it’s going to be a tough show.

Will there be 100% unemployment? Likely not, but even a conservative 30% has massive implications. For everyone saying “see every other transformation “, this one is different because it hits the aspirational white collar jobs and accelerates the loss of blue collar jobs without many replacement opportunities.

likehelpful

The billionaires should have a think on this

like

See: every tech revolution in human history.

like

Hearing this 2022 hot take is a lot like hearing people discuss Bitcoin as the wave of the future

like

We need to ask the tech overlords and see what their plan is…oh, wait they don’t care, they just want to ensure they are the ruling class and we are the wage labor because we are too stupid to make decisions for ourselves

like

I see you have been listening to the “All In” podcast

I think we will find an equilibrium at some point for some of these reasons. In addition, people are having less children so we are probably going to hit a state of declining population and AI will help make up for that declining population

Some sound reasoning. We will see a significantly lower world population by 2050. That’s not an unsubstantiated claim. Japan was one of the first countries to experience serious population decline. Have you read about what that means in Japan today??

I worry about the adjustment though because AI in two years is going to eliminate a lot of white collar and admin jobs. It can’t replace things like home repairs or things that can’t be made repetitive, but that leaves a lot that can’t be. Worries me in a serious way.

Same scenario as when electricity and the gas engine replaced manual labor.

AI leads to higher productivity in a world where Asia and Europe will have a massive drop in 18-55 population. So its a big win, potentially like steam engines or electricity.

If that cost outweighs the impact investments will stop. But from what im seeing on the power end massive investments are being made to meet those needs.

Basically we revert back to a modern version of feudalism

An interesting article:

https://fortune.com/article/what-are-the-jobs-most-exposed-to-ai-microsoft-research/

Related Posts

Larsen & Toubro Infotech LtI need help with understanding designations and salary level.. for 15 years what designation is good enough and what is the typical salary at that level. Larsen & Toubro Infotech

like

Hi guys,
I can see that CGI is hiring senior IIB developer. Can anyone please refer me for this position. Will DM the details.

Thanks in advance.

like

Been wanting to start a Consultancy that offers employment help to individuals. Any ideas on the success rate or how to start networking to have actual clients coming to me? What are the pros and cons?

like

Is there any PG/ FLAT available in Pune (Hinjewadi phase 3) location or nearby it. (For Male)
My company is Capgemini.
Please respond quickly.

like

What does it mean if a LinkedIn job posted is reuploaded when I just wrapped up final interviews?

like

Para 2

, good for nothing husband and they regret that this marriage happened and dragged every single discussion/scenario that we had in these many months in front of the family members.

i never abused my wife, never demanded anything materialistic from her and or her family, i have taken her to different places, bought everything that she demanded for

Hi! I have an interview for the role of financial consultant/financial planning and analysis @ computershare.. please share words of advise for me please... This is the highest role I have ever interview for.. I am currently a credit analyst! Any tips help. Thank you in advance.

like

So who’s watching Groundhog Day tonight?

funny

Anyone else shocked that Malcolm & Marie didn’t receive any nominations? I found the writing and acting to be absolutely incredible. I really thought it would be pulling on kinds of awards this year.

My friend and I (both Asian and gay) were seating at the cafe on the 2nd floor of Saks Fifth Ave today waiting for our table for the restaurant on the 9th floor. A lady came and asked where are we from, and “why are you two men in this mall? This is for female only”. I said this mall sells products for all genders. She said she has walked all floors and never saw a thing for men. Then she threw curse at me. I stood up and asked her to repeat what she said. She pulled her phone and called 911

like

Roll Tide Roll

Post Photo

Anyone know anything about 300 E 23rd? Good building, neighborhood, etc.? New to New York and don’t really know what to look out for - want something with some life (bars, restaurants) but not filled with clubs

like

Favorite halal restaurant in Boston? Help a Muslim brother out 😅

likesmart

What are some good restaurants with outdoor space that is heated in the winter?

like

Need 12 likes

likeuplifting

Brisbane hotels - Hilton or Sofitel?

like

I am a Strategic Sourcing Manager with 7 YOE in both direct and indirect spend across various industries (Life sciences, IT and Insurance) I have been offered a role with Fidelity for 13 lpa + 1.5 variable. Offer seems better than the national average for similar roles but I feel I would be underpaid based on the current market, my skills and value I will be bringing to the table. Any suggestions for offer negotiations?

like
like

We all agree that Midtown West is the armpit of Manhattan, right?

like

Additional Posts in Consulting

What do you think it takes for a PPD to get a utilization bearing WBS for proposal work? I know it is rare...

like

meeting with a headhunter in person this week. I'll be coming from my office which has casual dress. do I need to wear anything different for this meeting?

like

Has anyone figured out how to own a pet while consulting? Besides chia pets and gold fish

like

I flip flop between LOVING this job and can’t imagine going back to industry or absolutely despising this job and it’s effect on the rest of my life. There is no in between!!

likehelpfulfunny

Are any top consulting firms hiring for experienced analysts currently? I know ACN and some others are cyclical for resources 2-3 years out of college, but I’m looking to make a move sooner than fall

like

Hired as SA1. if my utilization is low for round table but I’ve gotten good Snapshots will I go up to SA2 or SA1B, which I don’t want of course.

like

Monday Status Report: Flight upgraded to first ✅. Aforementioned flight delayed 1.5 hours ❌. Partner canceled 6pm meeting ✅. Hotel upgraded to a suite at the Ritz ✅✅. Not bad for a Monday, not bad....

like

I am starting a new role with a new company and will have 6 direct reports. Although I have managed teams before in a consulting project setting, this will be the first time in industry. Any recommendations on how to sharpen my management skills (books, blogs, etc). Particularly looking at how to delegate effectively and practical examples on how to run day to day.

like

Just learned that I got laid off. I'm on work visa. What should I be doing? Have one month to find a job.

like

Interesting day. Left early for the airport. Took Uber Black. The driver is nice but the car gave the fuel warning at the start. Sitting at a gas station now while he figures out how to pump gas.

like

Anyone else obsessed with the Westin white tea line? 😅

like

Woke up to bug bite at a Sheraton on my Birthday.. #GreatStart🙄😪

like

Anyone know how the culture is at Oracle and is it similar to IBM?

like

My RL didn’t have a formal mid year pre CRT review with me. He just pinged me and said: I’ll represent you. Utilization = 75% and average snapshots. Am I at risk?

like

What are the best data privacy certs to aim for? 4 year exp in cyber risk consulting. Want to move to a privacy related role outside the big 4. Should I go for the CDPSE or CIPP or CIPM?

like

Has anyone tried investing via Worthy and Fundrise/Realty Mogul? Looking for options to generate passive income.

like

Interviewing with BCG in 2 weeks, what is special about BCG compared to Bain and McK?

like

Just watched house of lies and didn’t think it matched our lives 💯% .. interested to know what are the mis representations y’all saw in House of lies?

likehelpful

Moving to a new place and have space for a desk and office chair. Best recs for both? Wayfair would be great since I have a friend who has a corporate discount but open to other options

like

Been at D for 3 months now but still no invite to DU...what gives? Any other recent hires in the same boat?

like

New to Fishbowl?

Download the Fishbowl app to
unlock all discussions on Fishbowl.
That was just a preview…
Sign Up to see all discussions
  • Discover what it’s like to work at companies from real professionals
  • Get candid advice from people in your field in a safe space
  • Chat and network with other professionals in your field
Sign up in seconds to unlock all discussions on Fishbowl.

Already a user?
Login here

Share

Embed this post

Copy and paste embed code on your site

Preview

Download the
Fishbowl app

See what’s happening in your industry
from the palm of your hand.

A phone with Fishbowl app

Scan your QR code to download
Fishbowl app on your mobile

Download app

Sign up for free to view this conversation on Fishbowl

By continuing you agree to Terms of Use and Privacy Policy

Already have an account? Log in

Sign up for free to continue using Fishbowl

By continuing you agree to Terms of Use(New) and Privacy Policy(New)
Messaging rates may apply

Already have an account? Log in

For account settings, visit Fishbowl on Desktop Browser or

General

Legal