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Fintech will continue to grow, lots of opportunities for with Web 3.0, crypto and classic payments
Fintech products that add value and integrate will do well. Insurance, Bank, etc. intra-Fintech will struggle for funding as areas focus internally on efficiency and competition for limited resources. Management will be looking for shorter term opportunities.
This will release a number of Fintech innovators into the startup domain. Investors should look for opportunities while recognizing that many corporate innovators will fail to transition quickly, effectively, or at all.
A turbulent economic environment accentuates risk/return plays and thus should enable fintechs to thrive.
Majority of my product career has been in Fintech... so here are some takes that are being discussed in the industry...
Technology that supports the management, movement, investing, and exchange of money underpins the global economy. So certain aspects of Fintech will thrive while others will suffer.
Some Macro implications of an impending downturn
*Blockchain use cases will grow in importance primarily focusing on movement of money and decentralized ownership of financial assets - requires a more democratized understanding of Web 3.0
*growth of digital currencies and understanding digital currency + blockchain are NOT mutually exclusive (e.g. Chine e-CNY currency / digital yuan)
*proliferation of embedded, real-time, connected finance everywhere (e.g. banking services from your own company, Super Apps, physical and digital POS)
*increased importance in payments/processing infra., banking-as-a-service, open banking. This supports the unbanked and underbanked (e.g. think distribution of Pandemic aid and PPP loans). This also helps legacy incumbents go-to-market with faster, reliable, and compliant offers without tackling legacy infrastructure.
Consolidation for survival in high-risk segments:
*Bad unit economics and high risk: poor unit economics of neo/digital banks and BNPL orgs. which will only be amplified in a downturn resulting in some consolidation. BNPLs will also start showing up on consumer credit reports which might curtail consumer spending.
*High-risk segments may fail to gain notable efficiencies through technology (mortage, real estate, insurance, investing). Mortgage / real estate tech will not thrive in a stagnant housing market. Neo-investor marketplaces have poor economics (except for alternative investment digital marketplaces). Insuretechs might thrive because they offer more point-in-time, short-term policies which are more useful in a high-risk market.
Depends
Adopting crypto will definitely help sustain the economy