Are the days of crazy returns on cards over? Any MLB, NFL, or NBA potential star goes for crazy high prices. Sounds like before you could pick up Luca or Mahomes cards before they proved their value, now that potential upside seems to be baked into the price. For example, a Mahomes PSA 10 Silver Prizm went for ~$200 in 2018, now an ungraded Herbert Silver Prizm goes for $1,100

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I think we’re in a new bubble. Speed to market is huge to flip. I think high quality names will always be a decent investment

I wouldn’t consider any of these guys “long term investments”. Look how many QBs actually hit out of a draft class. It’s very few. And after a while they lose their market appeal and nose dive. Similar to fantasy football. NBA seems safer than NFL.

Also IMO of studying this market over the last couple months the only way to make money with limited risk exposure is through holding wax or running breaks. Participating in breaks you are going to lose. Buying wax outside of retail you are going to lose. Hunting for wax you will lose (too much time and unrealized costs). Buying singles is high risk - Herbert get hurt tomorrow similar to burrow and take a nose dive with his prices.

I am keeping a few cards from a collectors standpoint but getting rid of my higher priced stuff.

Agreed on the breaks. Look at the prices in the 100 case pick your player break for 2020 Bowman Draft Houdini is running on blowout forums right now. These prices are outrageous

I watched a few breaks of 2020 prizm and was just laughing as lineman without nfl jerseys are getting pulled. I know every card can’t be a hit. But the odds are def higher in those packs. We bought some XRs and had some nice hits.

I also wonder what % of people buying these cards are doing so ONLY to resell them. I have this image of a bunch of flippers just buying and selling from each other, moving a bunch of money around, with the occasional collector spending a bit of money on a card they truly value.

The flippers who can buy the lowest are the ones making money, most others are just breaking even, and eBay is profiting.

Greed is driving the bubble. As long as flipping cards is perceived as a way to make money, people will keep doing it, and prices will remain inflated.

An improved job market and a return to non-quarantine life will likely result in card prices coming down. That, and a decrease in guys like Gary V pumping their audience to buy more and more

Yes. Speed to market is huge and strategic bets on players (prospects). I tend to stock up in off season and sell in season. For example, I bought dozens of Acuna update rookies (us250) in psa 10 in the off-season pre covid for 85/90 each and flipped them near 200. I also bought nearly 100 raw that looked gem for 15 each, graded them and sold them. I’m high volume, quick sales for modern.

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So the "prices are out of control" conversion happens every year. Even Mahomes NT RPA selling out the gate for 2/3 of Carson Wentz coming off an MVP season seemed very high. The best of the best will continue to increase in demand and value, people will get slaughtered on the list. Card graveyards are littered with Sam Bradford, Carson Palmer, Mark Sanchez, Matt Leinart and the like.

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