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Mentor
No. They've pretty much never gone down except in connection with major financial crises. Prices go down when there arent qualified buyers because the number of people with money decreases.
Rate is expected to go down. Home prices are likely to go up…
They are still going up in NY Metro
Subject Expert
Going up in most HCOL cities as rates drop and many people who have been sitting on the sidelines with plenty of cash that has been growing for 18 to 24 months try to buy ahead of the rush as rates continue to drop.
Coach
Nope
No, though maybe in some locales and regions. In general though house prices will climb again as rates rise. In my state housing supply is still constrained vs demand so I don’t think it’s going to meaningfully go down for years if ever.
The inflation going back to normal levels just means that price increases are going back to normal levels, it does not mean that prices will revert.
2008 was a unique situation and different from today. Could it happen again, sure, but seems very unlikely.
These comments are kinda hard for me to believe. I’ve been watching my market for years and while it may be picking up, things definitely stagnated for a while and houses consistently lowered prices and sat on the market for longer and longer in the last year. I think it’s starting to change again, but I do think housing prices fell recently. They’re just going back up again.
Where is that?
Thinking about it more, why would owners who bought their properties at X amount sell it for less? (Unless they absolutely have to) so unless another financial crisis, how could prices possibly decrease?
Prices do sometimes decline, so the why would they ever sell argument doesn't hold. People sell because (a) they are being another house anyways so getting less for theirs, but buying another one at the same price level, (b) move, (c) lose job, (d) prices low for sustained period and want a bigger place. Maybe less sales at lower prices, but always sales.
In real or nominal terms? What location? What time period? Detroit has seen prices go down. Coastal California over any substantial period really never has. Economies change over time, but I suspect inflation will outpace any "real" decrease in many parts of the US, so in nominal terms prob OK over the long run (if the US economy overall declines in the long term, the dollar probably drops with it). RE is completely different in different parts of the country (behaves very differently in San Francisco vs. suburbs of Cincinnati...
It seems like I have the contrarian (unpopular?) opinion, but yes I believe they will go down in the next 1--2 years.
Why? Because they are already unaffordable for most, and because I see a lot of weakness in the labor market, and the US economy, and the global economy, and mounting geopolitical risks everywhere.
There are other reasons, too, but the abovementioned already gives me pause.
I am hedging for some tough times ahead.
Subject Expert
Who’s taking a loss? Buying activity over the past 2 or so years has been at an all time low. The people who are selling have likely owned for 3+ years, and nearly every house has appreciated in that period. Imagine folks who have lived in the same house for 15+ years and didn’t need to sell in 2021 when there was a frenzy, but are ready to sell now. Even if the price is down from 2021, they’re still way way up overall.
Those houses also likely need a lot of work and be sold to investors who can polish it up and sell at a premium to retail buyers. Maybe that means the initial sales price appears to be under market value initially, but the prices will climb again once rehabbed.