Remember the great resignation? Will we ever get anything like that again… abundance of jobs, inflated salaries, too many recruiter messages?

likesmart
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Nothing is forever, even an employer market

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Given the circumstances that precipitated it I sure hope not

likesmart

Unfortunately, my sense is that we are now in an era of permanent change in marketing services. In an era of “hyper personalization at scale”, AI & algorithms are simply going to become a bigger & bigger part of how marketing gets done. Some boutiques will always be hot and fashionable, but basically I see most organizations in our industry learning to do more with less people. And the clients are expecting the “productivity increase” to be passed along in lower compensation. Agencies are starting to push harder on the notion of faster better outcomes should mean more profits for the agency, but clients have typically won those debates in the end.

likesmart

I remember when W+K called me for a freelance project and I had to tell the recruiter I couldn’t take it because I had just taken a FT job (after turning down 3 other ones).

Ahhh… those were the days. 2021 seems like so long ago.

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Recruiters themselves are losing jobs, so….

likehelpful

The economy and job market typically go in expansion and recession cycles, so I’d expect the job market to bounce back eventually. However, AI is potentially changing the dynamic. But hopeful AI will create new jobs as well.

likesmart

There was *no such thing* as the great resignation. If you look back at resignations and job postings from that year there wasn’t a significant variance. The inflated salaries were due to increased budgets on the client side marketing teams because executives with no ability to forecast thought we would be inside forever.

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No offense, but knowing the “Great Resignation” was a manufactured media narrative made up out of thin air is cost of entry. It gained traction from this one TikTok viral moment in 2021, but had no statistical merit. That never stopped the media though.

The pre-pandemic baseline for voluntary quit rates was 2.3%. The range of quits between end of Q4 in 2020 and end of Q1 in 2021 never surpassed that.

During the “peak” that summer at 3.0%, the largest quit rates were over 6% in hospitality (not a surprise during Covid) and retail. To make all of this worse, I remember PwC put out some study surveying workers with a highly flawed methodology. They asked workers if they were “planning to quit in 12 months,” versus surveyed workers who “had quit.”

To tell you how amateur this was, Imagine asking everyone on this board if they plan to quit advertising in the next 12 months. How high would that number skew vs people who actually quit?

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What happened is that people were stuck inside with Covid consuming a ton more media across screens coupled with a ton of cash being put into the economy with the Covid relief money. So brands realized people were buying shit with all that money so funneled into advertising and more people were needed to do the work. At the same time tech companies were pushing clients to take advertising in house so there was a bubble during that “transformation” where they increased salaries to attract talent. Which killed the client agency legacy relationships. All that disruption created more demand for talent which is now at over saturation levels and getting worse because of AI

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No. At my agency we have started presenting scopes where part of it is done by AI.

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A. I. ....so ah nope.

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