This evening I spoke with a source who is close to the matters in the Pacific (specifically the South China Sea) and he stated the following:

“I think things are moving up. I had us rolling another 10-15 years before a large scale kinetic conflict with China.

We (The West) are weakened. China realizes that they got to move on us now.”

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No need to worry. I don't think they will start anything until 2023 at the earliest. Our project to move off Red Hat doesn't complete until then.

If my client suddenly moves the project timeline up, I'll let all you guys know it's about to start.

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What incentive would China have to “make the move on us”? What are they looking to do that they can’t do now? What benefit does China have to a prolonged and costly war that even if they were to “win” would absolutely wipe out their resources and population? The most dangerous countries are either those that feel an existential threat and may seek violence as the only solution (I.e. North Korea) or are driven by religious ideology and thus may view death and destruction as just a means to a more righteous ends (I.e Iran). China fits in neither of those categories.

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Please no. Not under this president 🙏

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I mean I’d want this punted out 3+ years to someone else who is not trump or Biden. I don’t think Trump would be better at leading a war on China, although for very different reasons.

I just hope we have a moderate, younger president who doesn’t project an aura of weakness the same way Biden does when we do take on China. Or narcissistic mania the way Trump did. That’s not a situation we want any instability in the presidency for.

Imagine if China says America will no longer get any iPhones overnight. No need for a war

likefunny

100% true. People won’t even wear a mask; you think the American public would support a war that disrupts their ability to buy their creature comforts?

A war with China would not be battled by military. It will be cyber. In fact, that's likely how any war between superpowers will be fought in the future.

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I was reminded on my recent trip to Hawaii and Pearl Harbor why Japan attacked the Pacific Fleet, which had more to do with its ambitions in the China Sea and the rest of Asia than it did the US. But my point is a military battle like what we've had in the Middle East and southwestern Asian mountains/deserts for decades won't happen in China or the US. There's just no need for it today. It would be ridiculously easy for us to cripple each other economically and/or through infrastructure attacks.

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Maybe. This isn't the cold war like it was with the USSR. China, as much as I dislike the CCP, is not exporting their form of government or communism around the world. They are capitalist-ish like us and seek to make money. Furthermore, china is not looking to dominate the world, they want to be a local hegemon as they have been for most of civilized history.

Additionally, it's moving from a monopolar to a multipolar world again. Great powers will jokey for influence and leverage. It's not just China and the USA, there are also the EU, Russia, India, Indonesia, Brazil, resurgent Japan, rising Mexico, etc. It's not going to just be US and China.

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Once they stop producing our microchips (there’s already a shortage now “due to COVID”), our military (and economy) will be screwed… opening salvo?

And we wouldn’t just be taking on China (and most likely N. Korea). We’d be taking on Russia and its middle eastern allies as well.

smart

I think Taiwan conflict is the biggest risk between us and China

I believe it. That’s why the US is helping TSMC build their new chip factory in Phoenix.

Guess I better learn a new language.

Our new bosses will demand it.

Both China and the US have a lot more to lose than to gain from a war
South China Sea is not worth it

Absolutely. And China needs us as much as we need them. Makes me think of this scene from The Parent Trap.

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The South China Sea is just a piece in this puzzle. China has everything to gain by challenging the status quo and usurping America by force.

Y'all are preaching to the choir. I'm just adding some levity to this thread.

Did China learn how to build aircraft carriers yet? Laughing in 7th Fleet

Indeed they have and quite efficiently too, so much so that congress commissioned a report called ‘Battle Force 2045’ which is in direct response to this.

Spot on A2. The very thought of this possibility ought to make us shudder.

What do u mean “next?” We’ve been at war with them now for a min

An article from the Guardian today.

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