950k for a new construction Toll brothers townhome in Ashburn (room to increase with upgrades). Feels like we’re paying a hefty premium because the market is hot right now and that could come crashing down any minute. Any thoughts from someone who has been looking in the same region?

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New construction builds are generally stable price wise. The only concession you get when the market goes down is appliances/upgraded finishes but, the price is usually pretty stable.

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idk about your particular home but Ashburn has been hot since before COVID. How does it compare to other comps in the area?

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Sqft wise there isn’t a lot of townhomes for that price that are new built and have the appliances/countertops, flooring that this one has.

From someone who lived in Ashburn from 1999 to 2019 that sounds about right. Homes that were 250K in 99 are selling for 800K+ and the Sq Ft, is less than what you are building

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Buy from a trusted local builder. But the market won’t crash. It’s nothing like 2008.

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In ashburn? That seems nuts to me. Is it huge?

Toll Bros is reputable though and will likely help solve new construction issues that pop up

What do you mean? This is very normal for Ashburn.

Just curious. What kinda upgrades? Smart home products?

No, the usual builder upgrades like better flooring, quartz counter tops, waterfall island, stacking door on the loft and deck, better appliances than standard

Townhouses in the area don't appreciate nearly as much as SFHs, especially in Loudoun county which despite its growth these past few years, will always carry the stigma of "too far from DC". Even SFH homes around Ashburn haven't really seen too much recovery post great-recession peaks as compared to Fairfax or Arlington.

I'd double check the true above grade square footage as well from property tax records of similar models. Having bought from NV and nearly from Toll, they both embellish it by including garage spaces, living areas on slab, etc. I'd also imagine you'd still need to add another 10-15% of design center stuff too based on my experience with Toll.

First off, I’m jealous that you’re loookg at a new toll bros home! It’s a new luxury build, of course it’s expensive

Second, you’re in the DC area and Ashburn isn’t going to lose value any time soon

Third, I can’t imagine real estate crashing down. What would be the catalyst? Nobody wants houses any more? If housing came down even five percent there’s a whole tranche of buyers waiting to pounce

Toll brothers homes are f’ing amazing. My goal in life is to buy one as my last home when I retire

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