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Tell them to stop and quit trying to outthink logic. Pick their poison and move on
I'm right there with you. I do my best to keep things as simple as possible. Complicating everything just makes it messy.
That's one upside of the government shutdown, there's no new data being released. And the data collectors aren't working, so it'll take a while before anything appears even if we ever get a functional government in place. Some may say we're flying blind, but an optimist would say we're modeling less noise.