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The “rule” is generally 15-20% declines, a bit higher if it’s a destination for many.
However I’ve heard anecdotally from friends and am personally experiencing a higher acceptance rate than expected.. People are excited to go do normal life things again.
We also have a second list of people we want to invite but just waiting for enough declines before we can invite them.
Destination wedding (in the US) and I experienced the opposite of PM1. People want to do things, but many of our friends have had children and are uncomfortable leaving them for the first time, extended family didn’t get vaccinated, nervous about delta, etc. so really there’s no way to know. We had probably 30-35% decline.
Reach out to the vendor / your planner. My wedding is a destination for most but my planner said that due to the popularity of my destination she’s only seen 5-10% decline responses in the past few years on average. I’m inviting 200 and I’ve only heard from 2 people so far they can’t come.
We have a list of 200 but ideally want 125 guests
We invited 165ish, and I think around 116 came. We also had several people come to the outdoor ceremony and then leave before the indoor reception due to COVID nerves (but they warned me ahead of time so we could adjust seating and food).