I am confident that BigLaw is a bubble after this K&E news. It’s simply not sustainable and the greed is going cause an industry implosion. We are not worth that much money.

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Many of the same predictions were made when computers came into widespread use. Overblown assertions about how the computers were going to do the work of the associates and fewer would be hired, with the whole industry/career imploding. Instead, what happened was associates (and, eventually, partners) became more efficient and relied less on secretaries/assistants/support staff. When I entered the profession 28 years ago, it was a 1-2 ration of secretaries (as they were called then) to attorneys, and in some cases 1-1. I even had a partner at one firm in 2013 who had TWO secretaries. Now, my assistant supports 6 of us. 70% of her job used to be printing and filling - e-mails, especially. Now all of that is filed electronically by the attorneys in doc management systems. The law has become ever more complex and specialized, and the number of attorneys has grown, not shrunk.

I think much the same thing will happen with AI. It’s not about providing answers to questions, it’s about knowing the questions to ask. That judgment still won’t be easily replaced, and it does need to be developed. And no less a company than IBM agrees with me; it recently said it was ramping up its entry-level hiring, but was completely rethinking the nature of the jobs considered “entry level,” and what those employees will do.

I know the rules in my area as well as I do because I started in an era where we had to do this ourselves. Without doing the work myself (albeit in spreadsheets and word processors), I could not perform at the level I do today, and its knowledge lacking in younger practitioners because they no longer needed to do it. If you don’t know the rules and how to research issues intimately, you will simply not be able to know whether AI is feeding you the right answer or drafting the right provisions for the contract. You must know before you can supervise, regardless of whether you’re supervising the work of human associates or AI.

But maybe I’m wrong. I’m getting older and crotchety, and I bristle at the thought that I’ll be made redundant and 28+ years of hard-won experience will be worthless. We’ll see.

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I am curious to see what will happen to firms like K&E after AI advances. Will it just be a firm with NEPs and EPs? The firm is one of only two massive and extremely profitable firms (Latham being the other).

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I think the partner-associate pyramid will look more like a population pyramid of a developed country. We’ll have fewer associates, but you’ll still need a machine to feed the next generation’s partner ranks and law schools just don’t spit out partners.

I’d say for now at least, AI can do about half of what I asked juniors to do two years ago. AI can do maybe 10% of what mid levels and seniors do. As of now, AI just doesn’t have the ability to make the judgment calls that mid levels and seniors do. Now that might change, but I don’t think it will particularly in practice areas where (as A7 said) people are willing to pay both as insurance and to make important calls. AI will probably take over most of what PI settlement mills do, or what T&E lawyers do for the middle class, but imo itll never take over what biglaw lawyers do, even if it is capable of probably doing a junior associate’s entire job in a couple of years.

I had the same read after that article

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You may not be worth it, but I certainly am. If I help move tens of billions, I should be paid at least a million.

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You’re getting paid (n-(n-1))*$1 for every n*$10,000 you move? Bad deal lol

when much is given, much expected. AI won’t change a thing.

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