I’m submitting a Round 3 application to Stanford GSB. Given the typically lower admission rates this late in the cycle, is there any meaningful downside to reapplying in Round 1 next year if I’m not admitted this round?

My GRE score is lower than I would like it to be so I don't expect a high chance of admission. Still, my overall application is very strong so I'm thinking of applying this year just in case, and then reapplying again with a better score R1 next cycle.

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I heard of someone that got waitlisted rd 3 then got in rd 1 following year. But not sure how common that is.

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I presume you are a domestic candidate, because most schools don’t accept international applicants beyond R2.
As an admissions consultant, I would say that you apply in the round when you are sure your candidacy is the strongest. That includes the scores.
That said, being a reapplicant within six months is not a great place to be. While you could have an improved your score in R1 (compared to R3), not much else would’ve changed in your profile.
Also, anecdotally it is said that the success rates for reapplicants (amongst all reapplicants) is <1%. Schools focus on selectivity ratio and hence want all possible applications to come in. They won’t ever tell you not to be a reapplicant.
Hope this helps.

The <1% math needs to be understood. It is the rate of success of a reapplicant amongst all reapplicants, not proportion of the class. There’s a fine print.
The law of averages also means that there will be dispersion. Maybe HBS is what you quote and some other school is near zero.
We can agree to disagree. I did mention that the data is “anecdotal”.

What are your stats / background?

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