Is there anyone who can discuss the current development trend of the world economy? I am very willing to learn and share what I know.

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I might be able to help, what do you do?

In a nutshell, I think there are two trends you need to watch: long term and short term (business cycle). Long term, GDP growth is still occurring, but at a slower pace than the pre GFC. Interest rates have been in a long term decline as well, which means demand for credit is structurally weak.

Short term (business cycle): Last year was a phenomenal year, PMIs (purchasing manager index) were all accelerating upwards. This year, we are starting to see PMIs decelerate and heading down, which is a business cycle downturn. Rates likely tell us this will occur through the year, business cycle may inflect back upwards in 2023/4

I’d recommend following David Kelly from JP Morgan on LinkedIn. He is super knowledgeable when it comes to what is happening in the global economy and easy to understand.

Yes, I understand.


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