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Bowl Leader
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Mentor
My life is being held together by rubber bands
When you know your pilot had a mad one last night...
Additional Posts in Option Traders & Investing
6/8 Thread (General):
Anyone else hammering AEO puts?
Anyone going in on VNET?
Bowl Leader
Potential opp on the short side for TSLA?
- X
@BC what do you think about SHOP puts?
Is anyone planning on trading water futures?
Enthusiast
4/4 Thread (General):
Mentor
Enthusiast
10/06 Thread (BC):
Subject Expert
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I so hope you’re right. Ready to deploy the dry powder
Subject Expert
Do you think Trump timed his announcement to match the 50fib retraccement number?
Nice analysis. Thanks!
Subject Expert
Yup. Was being cute.
Thanks for these reports. Got cash on the sidelines ready to deploy when we hit those numbers
Mentor
Yuck. Still think we sell off but the market had a field day feasting on late shorts. I would still be short here and wait for the fall. Until we break into new highs, this is a short.
You will get steam rolled staying short in a market like this. Futures +.6% tonight again. Don’t marry a position.
Unlikely to drop that much imo. The stimulus package will pass one way or the other, either after election or before as a surprise political boost to one party or the other depending on how they believe they can posture it.
Mentor
As you can see, it's pretty damn close to a perfect trade. Nicks the yellow line once, rallies for a 2nd test. Only a move above the peak invalidates it. Seriously, this is going to get fun. Look for a slight rebound and a 50% HWB sell of the down move from the highs of the past day to the lows . . . That is the entry into this larger trend.
Mentor
Sell Orders for New Shorts at 3377-81, Stop at 90.
This aged like milk lol
Subject Expert
We are near all time highs in tech and Covid stocks. I’m not sure whose buying PTON at $120 but I could never enter a long position at this price point.
Subject Expert
Hey now. I just put 35% of my net worth into PTON calls for expiry next Friday...
That bad ya think?
Subject Expert
I think Michael’s level is just the next stop. I’m more of a fundamentals guy than he is and don’t see how the S&P can sustain the PE multiples we’re looking at now in light of a stalled reopening and a likely rerating on corporate debt that pushes many BBBs into the junk bucket next year. And that’s before you even think about the macro impacts of the dollar trade and treasuries.
2021 S&P500 earnings estimates for next year are ~$145 per share. Put an 18x multiple on that and you get to ~2630. That 18x is about average for the index. The EPS estimate assumes a vaccine is available in Q1 and widely distributed by mid-year. Not an unreasonable assumption but certainly not a sure thing. So, 2600 may not be the bottom.
I expect a gap up tomorrow lol this is what literally algos selling today due to no stim package talks and here trump is tweeting right now offering 1.2k like it’s nothing again
Fair point, but I think tech ER will cause big green again. Spy 360 before election is still in the cards... after election idk
Subject Expert
The algos really love bumping up tech this week. Some tech is close to retesting all time highs.
@Michael, would love to hear an update, based on markets performance today struggling to stay above the $343 line
Subject Expert
A1... you have been right. Just let me know when the next September like sell off is.
Bro, this market hasn’t stopped going up
Subject Expert
I’ve been trimming a little today and have a hedge on for options positions for earnings next week. Noting big on any of those fronts, but doesn’t seem like this is really a solid move with such low volumes.