My boss is promising a promotion if I hit these crazy aggressive targets... but I don't think they're remotely achievable. Do I go for it, or manage expectations now?

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My gut feeling here would be that your boss is just trying to squeeze as much as they can out of you by dangling a carrot in front of you that they have zero intention of actually giving you. Classic move from an unscrupulous boss. I wouldn't take the bait if I was you.

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Unless your boss is the CEO or the head of HR, they shouldn’t be promising you anything. Your boss very likely doesn’t have full control over whether you get a promotion or not. This is why so many people get “promised” promotions from their managers, but it never ends up happening.

What are the targets? Are they sales related? How much is actually in your control?

If your gut says don’t do it, then don’t. You already know they’re not achievable so it looks like s/he is trying to use you

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