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While I understand that negative sentiment towards home prices and interest rates, do people actually understand what a housing market crash would mean? If the housing market crashes, that means home values have deceased by over 30%, which most probably means that the economy is in shambles, people all over the country lost their jobs, homes, and retirement plans. Ultimately, many of those people even die, not to mention that there would be a huge increase in poverty and homelessness.

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I see only one way we get a broad 20+% drop in prices. Really high unemployment. Most people have 3-4k in mortgage payments, credit card debt, 2 cars costing them 2k + a month with all associated expenses. A pretty average life costs 6-10k a month. Unemployment check comes to the rescue at 2k a month. Savings are depleted quickly. Stocks are probably down as well. Houses with negative equity are handed back to the bank. Downturns can last years. Even if you have an emergency fund it’s a bandaid. With 500 people applying for every job wages decrease. It’s all very possible and likely continuing down our current path. When the best moment comes to buy your job will be doing a 10% reduction in staff. There’s never a perfect time to buy.

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It is regional, but those numbers are not unrealistic on the west coast. We’ve got two normal families living in RV’s at my neighbors place. They work blue collar jobs full time, UPS, construction, welding. Homeless people everywhere.

The real kicker, is the housing market will collapse only when all of our parents die.

This is absolutly true. Organic population growth is below the rate to keep increasing the population. There will be a point in the next 10-20 years, when the boomers all pass on, that there will be too many places to live and not enough people. Not many are paying attention to this yet.

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Said it in a similar thread, but aside from the “this is totally different than 2008 blah blah blah”, the other two things I consider is that there’s wayyy too many people with the means to both sit out a price downturn (and effectively help wedge the price at current levels) and or start buying up houses once they get a bit discounted. Many of those same people stand to lose money since they’re often invested in multiple real estate properties too.

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From a financial standpoint in this market, which would be a better approach in Austin -

1. Buy a ~8-850k house that meets most of our ideal criteria (size, schools, interiors etc) to stay long term

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