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Wake me up when a robot can pick a jury and deliver a closing.
Also, in my experience, AI is really weak on research and analysis.
I don’t think that is the case for me. I’ve been using Westlaw’s precision tool. Some basic things it can answer correctly. Often, however, it will respond to very specific and direct questions with answers that are dead wrong. The weird thing is that directly underneath the incorrect answer, it shows all the cases and language that show why the answer is wrong.
It’s as if I asked it “what color is the sky?”, and it responds that the sky is most likely green. Underneath that, however, will be cases explaining that the sky is blue, and not green at all.
In addition to providing dead wrong answers, the tool will also often give answers that are just not supported by the authority that it cites. For instance, using the same hypothetical, the AI would answer that the sky is probably green, followed by supposedly supporting caselaw that talks about rainclouds and says nothing about the color of the sky.
The robots have a long way to go.
At this stage, agentic AI is not really capable of doing the work of a lawyer, even the most junior one. Too many mistakes and hallucinations. However, AI in general won’t fully replace lawyers - it will severely decrease the number of job openings because you may not need as many lawyers. I think in house and transactional work will be impacted the most since most contracts are pretty standard and can be automated. However, you will still need a sort of “human in a loop”. I think AI will automate a lot of tasks lawyers do on a regular basis and the tasks that usually junior positions are for. So the company or law firm may need 5 attorneys instead of 10. Also, a lot of clients will probably expect a drop in costs for legal work since the overall expectation is everyone has to use AI to be efficient.
In what tasks? And in what decade?
Yes eventually. AI in theory will one day be able to do essentially all jobs. Lawyers will be one of the last but we still are replaceable by machines
no because guns dont fire themselves genius