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What will interest rates be come December?
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If we were in a recession we wouldn’t have consumer inflation. You have to pick one…you’re trying to tell us that people don’t have any money (recession), but also people have too much money (inflation)
unemployment is less than 4%, wages are at an all time high, corporate earnings are at an all time high, and the economy is so robust that the fed has to introduce artificial economic conditions just to slow things down
If there’s a recession, nobody bothered to tell the economy
I count the recession set up as part of a recession period.
Recession - 2020 to today. Hopefully craps to the low in Q2 2024 so we only have a year or two of what you’d consider recession.
Bidens stimulus in April bumped the M2 (money in circ) back up. It’s a toss up to see if the SC will be in lockstep with the Fed on further printing. Election coming up so u know the dems gonna try to spend more.
It’s going to take: money in circulation to continue dropping “recessive period’. Means the fed has to remain hawk until we see like a good 4 quarters of EQUAL OR DECREASE in inflation. Rn we see like 3.5 and 2.3 monthly inflation increases still. Just because it’s close to the “target rate” doesn’t mean we can let off interest rate highs, just means the rate at which we are in an inflationary period is slowing- still increasing.
We gotta actually see a starved economy “borrowing wise” before we ever see rates come down.
If they come down before a significant recession, say hello to hellish 1980s rates again.