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My guess, 1 SPG = 2.5 Marriot
Good news: it's not happening until 2018 (per this week's email from SPG.) Time to burn them while they're still worth something, right?
How about they let SPG points stay as is and have the two separate? - just guessing. Kind of like Ritz and Marriott points.
Gonna be 2:1 at best and probably will be coupled with a Marriott devaluation. There's no way 20k point SPG property = a Tier 2 Ritz (maybe a FEW exceptions)
Well SPG points is the costlier currency. The exact conversion may not be as per today's valuation. So, it's hard to tell exactly how much.
Hoping closer to 3.0
I'm more concerned about our earning power post integration. $1 on SPG AmEx = 1 SPG point. Will $1 on Marriott Visa = 1 Marriott point? In that case, our earning potential drops significantly.
The cynic in me says the 2 years until integration means they can strategically re-value both programs so the merger "looks" like a great deal to consumers. I expect a decent devaluation of SPG in the back half of this year