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Chief
Rate cuts are not the answer to global trade uncertainty and AI spending. Corporations continued to make ridiculous profits, they just prefer to spend all that in AI infrastructure and freeze hiring because they don’t know what comes out of trade deals (of lack there of).
Chief
You are assuming that job market is bad due to high rates. I’m saying these companies have ridiculous amount of cash and they have been making record profits. Companies like meta are hiring people at 300 mil a pop.
So it will get better for consulting ? I don’t know why
Rate cuts are being discussed because jobs market seem to be deteriorating. It’s possible the job market will worsen for a bit before it gets better.
*has deteriorated.
BLS updated the past 2 years and found 1.7M jobs simply never existed…astonishing
Rate cuts alone won’t make up for the deadweight loss suffered from tariffs. But worst of all is the uncertainty. The administration’s constant flip flopping has had and will continue to have a major impact on foreign and domestic investment.
Every company I have seen has been hiring like mad since February
Chief
Very industry and company specific. I don’t disagree but some are really struggling. The transportation industry is in trouble and that is a strong leading economic indicator. That worries me.
If you think it’s tough now it will ALWAYS be tough no matter what state of the economy. People always compete for good jobs and companies always fight for top talents
I am on the job market now and frankly very disillusioned about what I hear and see everyday. HMs and recruiters are saying every time they open a job req, they’re getting 800+ applicants that day. Job seekers using AI services that will take their resume and what kind of jobs they are interested in and apply to 400+ jobs in 1 hour. Recruiters and HMs at various companies saying they no longer value or differentiate referrals due to poor outcomes in the past. What are we supposed to do? One hiring manager said they had over 3000+ applicants for a role in 2 days!
Not particularly. The labor market's challenges are deeper than the rate cuts and with Trump's general unpredictability/mercurial nature, it's hard for companies to want to make substantial investments.
Chief
A rate cut probably won't impact hiring much until the impacts of tariffs become clearer once the Supreme Court decides if Trump's actions are constitutional or not.
Pro
As soon as the tariffs end and the administration says that it won’t try to find a way to restart them.
METR study just showed that not only is AI not working for pthe greater good. That AI use amongst employees actually showed a 20% dropoff in productivity. With an entire industry leveraged on those things not happening.
With AUM hovering around 5.3tril, What could go wrong right?
Are economists still comparing our economy and policies to 1930?
Interest rates are just one of many factors that impact the labor market and rates don’t have a straightforward relationship to the labor market. My bet: no, the likely interest rate cut in September won’t heal the labor market.