Data nerds whats your prediction for the election?

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Considering there is barely any voter data out yet. Can’t tell.

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There will be no draw.

Dewey Defeats Truman. Oh wait, there was a problem with that data. This time around I've heard some interesting things about the numbers of new voters, and Jen O'Malley Dillon (major data nerd herself) said she's encouraged by that. But at this point it's all just indications or signals.

Data surrounding the election is at best bad data due to poor polling practices and logistical challenges, and at worst intentionally obfuscated and tampered with in order to influence outcomes. Then you have a disconnect with whatever "good" data you may have and what actually occurs in reality.

Remember that Clinton had 90%+ chances of success from all "reputable" predictions immediately prior to the election in 2016.

That was in part due to the people who responded to polls also likely not voting the way they said they would.

I heard the pollsters herded their data for months to avoid seeming like an "outlier" and "unreliable". Is that true?

Kanye

HAHAHAHAHAHH this comment wins. This made me laugh way too hard EY 2.

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Genpop finds ways to say we can't trust any sources or even the final results now anyways

I was watching the options markets for weeks before the election. I had predicted that trump would get 70% of the vote based on people's options.

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