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Buckle up, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride
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I think sometimes you have to use past data as a baseline, but I also think people often aren’t willing to make strong assumptions in a volatile market.
Historical data is important. Still have to read the room and understand what’s different now vs. then. False confidence comes from best-case-scenario thinking, good to consider the alternative always.
In a sense, history is all we've got. But when things are happening in a volatile world, and that's reflected in the market, history can inform us but only to a limited extent. I was thinking about this last night, I went back and read some news articles about the Straits of Hormuz during the 1988 "tanker war." It's fascinating reading now, but many circumstances are extraordinarily different than what we're seeing today.