Have we seen the worse of the pandemic recession, and what shape do you think the recovery will be?

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Nope. September/Octobrr is gonna be rough. Social distancing will be even more broken down, temps will drop, states won't have the willpower to shut things down again, all as schools reopen. (Not even mentioning if antibodies only last 3 months...)

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Since the start of this, pretty much all of the most credible experts in this field have all been saying the worst will be in Sept - Nov time frame from a perspective of the virus/health impact.

Now add in the fact that the WH does not want to admit there is a problem and has stated we will not shut down again under any circumstances. Plus there is an election in the fall, and shutting down would be an admission that there is a problem in the US. What I believe will happen, is that businesses will be forced to shut down (e.g. due to employees being sick, no customers coming in because they are scared, or employees refusing to come in), however, there won't be appetite for a major government sponsored bailout program (due to politics) this time.

Tl;Dr - worst is yet to come

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I want to cry. The fact that this is going to get worse scares the shit out of me.

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It’s all up to the Fed these days.

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I think in terms of the contraction, April was the worst month, but we will not be back to Feb 2020 levels in terms of demand and employment for a couple of years as the residual effects of lockdown chip away at any economic gains.
That I think is the best case scenario that does not involve an uncontrolled second wave.

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W

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