People who do financial models - if you only have quarterly numbers and need to get to monthlies what's a good way to do this? Average of quarters for given year? Airline industry

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See if you can get actual usages or some kind of monthly data and make proportions off that for each quarter.

Even industry trends could help if you can find any monthly study.

like

Just do the analysis quarterly. No point making false precision/granularity. If you have a decent allocation rule (eg pax miles describes 70% of rev variation), it could work.

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yeah the real question for me is why you actually need monthly data

if you really have to, create some placeholder table in your model for how to split quarters into months and reference that in your model. start with whatever, 33%, but if you have to switch it later you can do it there and it'll flow through

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if you have any type of monthly data you can allocate the quarterly number based on those percentages

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I would phase equally by month based each quarter. Maybe adjust certain months if material event occurred.

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You can use any competitor/industry trends to build models but averaging quarters to months will be heavily flawed and miss out on trends that don’t coincide with quarter schedule. Do you have ticket volume or load factor?

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Awesome, I would personally do what others in the chat have noted as it’s more straightforward. If you want to get numbers that mirror the monthly shifts in profitability take as much historical data as you can from the load factor numbers to get close to the general distribution of monthly dollars in their quarterly calendar. It takes into consideration RPMs and ASMs so there’s definitely a rationale for it, but you should see if you can find any dollar trends for companies with similar load factors operational costs (probably can’t get this data, but if you can amazing) to offer another layer of validity to your model and will offer more than ever averages likely could. Good luck!

Phasing?

Not sure what it means. Trying to fill in the blanks for historicals

If Domestic, TSA has daily numbers. Goes back over 10 years.

I'd have to ask. One of my Analysts found the daily numbers for a project over a year ago. The press is quoting them every day right now comparing them to past years.

I’d also tend to agree with those saying don’t create false precision. Quarterly is the level of granularity they provided... anything at a monthly level (the suggestions in this thread are awesome!) wouldn’t be reliable compared to a quarterly analysis imo

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