I think it’s naive to not ask this question and it has been asked but not with the data points we now have. JP Morgan expects -40% GDP and 25m jobless (15% unemployment). Only 60k deaths now...

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To answer your question, think of it this way: would I rather lose my job or my mom? I'd save my mom infinite times.

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Statistically that’s not the question you should be asking

The success of every public health policy is the accusation of having “overdone it”.

Secondary spikes in other countries should give you pause. Even with widespread testing available there will be hotspots that require re-locking down.

While CA and NY population centers have turned the corner, let’s keep an eye on the south and Midwest, those who have more lax distancing, and let’s track what happens to infection rates after Easter (with temptation to gather).

The UCSF doc who has a daily feed made a point; what if SF has won the Super Bowl and there was a big parade? (For comparison the Spanish Flu in the states really broke out when a quarantined group went out to celebrate in a parade celebrating the end of WWI)

But if public policy doesn’t sway you, let’s take a look at the owners of the sports leagues. Billionaires, completely connected, able to sway policy, existential reasons to remain open, and the reopen. They’re not exactly clamoring to get going. Why?

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The study is pretty clear; the overall decline was 18pct; and it tracks whether these economies did better than the average or worse than the average based on social distancing. It’s purely economic, and answers your question directly...

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If we think of the base case with no intervention, I'm sure all of us would have gotten the virus during Q1/Q2 2020. There would be horrendous knock on effects since no medical system is prepared for that.

By a certain point in this no-intervention scenario things would get bad enough that people would be naturally sheltering in place, resulting in negative economic impacts.

Also we shouldn't think of the virus as a "one and done" thing. 1918 Flu had three waves, and we don't have a COVID vaccine. We will be living with some level of disease control measures for a while.

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^ oh I def agree

“What’s more important? People dead or my dollars?”

Can’t believe we keep having this question appear again and agin

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Being unemployed, while tremendously stressful, is temporary. Being dead is not.

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Predicted. Largely due to measures executed. Let’s imagine we didn’t go as strict. Would ~15m jobs back be worth the roughly 500k deaths that would have maybe come just focusing on older and immune compromised individuals sheltering in place? It’s after the fact and a hypothetical but something to consider for future. The devastation of 25m jobs to me seems far worse as it will last for years. Suicides go up. Quality of life eviscerated. Savings wiped out.

Oh. So you’re not looking for people to change your mind. You want to just argue with everyone who disagrees with you. Got it.

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^in the situation room at the White House I bet that was the conversation that was had

Deloitte trying to turn into the McKinsey Star Wars meme

That make us your daddy? Lol all in jest

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