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Bain & Company Hi all, I am interested in making the move to the Middle East, however starting from august/September. What do you think are the prospects for the future in the region? Do you envisage a hiring freeze or are companies still going strong? Thanks!McKinsey & Company Boston Consulting Group Kearney Bain & Company
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The level of wishful thinking here...
Trump has literally given Iran a 48h deadline to open the strait lest he'll obliterate Iran's gasfields. Sure, it's Trump. He could backtrack on that in the blink of an eye. But some ppl here were saying from the begining that this would only last a few days and yet it keeps on escalating.
Not sure consulting firms around the globe are ready to absorb a huge amount of ME consultants, which in normal times are already difficult to transfer to European/American offices given the perception that our work here is pure bullshit.
When Russia happened, the economy was on a different stage everywhere, notably with the ME itself being on a hiring spree. It was easy to transfer a few qualified people from Moscow to Dubai. Now try doing the reverse.
Unless this war magically ends in a few days, there will be layoffs buddy. When this ends and the all Gulf countries are solely focused on getting oil running again (some experts are saying that it could take several months already now, imagine when Trump bombs the gasfield and Iran attacks back...), the last thing on the menu will be target operating models for resorts and gaming cities.
+ recession on Western markets can be triggered (esp in case of further escalation), which can even lead to layoffs of consultants in these markets.
+ M&A deals already slowed down because of uncertainty.
All the ‘smart’ consultants who thought this ‘will be over in a week’ and ‘will not escalate’……should probably have a special review next cycle…..
Do you want to share that feedback with my evaluator? I think today will be TACO day 🌮
No one will be transferred.. because nothing will escalate . It’s quite obvious.
Fingers crossed
Mentor
I wouldn’t count on the Russia/Ukraine playbook personally. CIS folks had in-demand technical skills and worked on real projects, some of which were in the EU. Not the smart cities and tourism and sports PMO or useless strategy refreshes like us.
Also, the EU took in Ukrainians with open arms, and the gulf did the same for Russians. Whereas for us, the rest of the developed world is actively strategizing to contain the potential migrant crisis if things were to escalate.
Next review will have this baked in. Blood bath.
Mentor
Also one thing to note, the European offices are involved quite a bit in Middle Eastern projects for most firms (it’s very common to have British, German, French, Polish, etc. consultants, junior and senior, on ME engagements). The damage on energy infrastructure is also rippling across to Europe quite a bit.
Long story short, not only will other offices NOT take in consultants from the ME, but if anything I’m predicting a good amount of layoffs in these other offices as well.
I’m seeing multiple signals that this could escalate further
The core issue is that there’s no clear basis for agreement
If this escalates even partially, the second-order effects matter more than the direct ones. Energy disruption alone could trigger a broader financial shock across markets.
From a personal standpoint, this isn’t about whether firms stay or leave. They usually react late. The real question is individual timing. Those who move early, while options are still open, are structurally in a better position than those who wait for clarity.
I think this will vary on type of firm. The Russia playbook will give you the answer to what your firm did when faced with this situation.
Yeah, that was exactly my thinking.
Enthusiast
Russia play was in place very early, if replicated it should have been activated already, was in a moment where other regions were needing talent, so not applicable now as we have a very different market and numbers. Be hopeful but don’t lie to yourselves, stay safe!
Well will let people go, up to them to find some region to transfer before the ax comes again
I heard several K partners were let go, is that true?
Hopefully there’ll be some natural churn with some people wanting to leave